Thursday, May 5, 2011
Lots of discussion of the bad initial unemployment claims number today. The above is my version of the graph, since I didn't quite like any of the others I've seen. Could this be some kind of turning point? Maybe. It's a pretty noisy series, however. I wouldn't be too quick to express any kind of certainty at this point.
Correction: Kevin Drum emails questioning the level of the final data point, and it turns out I had made the graph from this report, without realizing that leaves off the last couple of weeks. A corrected graph is above, and as you can see, it makes the excursion look considerably more significant. Teach me to blog on my lunch-hour.