Thursday, May 12, 2011

Global Oil Supply Flat in April

The OPEC and the IEA are both out with their April numbers for total liquid fuel production.  OPEC shows it slightly up, but the IEA shows it slightly down, so I guess it's flat to within the margin of error.  The above shows the graph of the last couple of years (not zero-scaled to better show changes).  The next graph shows a slightly longer term, also with prices on the right side (but not zero-scaled either).

Interestingly, both agencies made revisions that made the Jan-Mar fall greater.  With the sharp rise in prices in April, the price production graph stayed just about in the envelope of the last oil shock:

Prices fell sharply last week, so this may change next month.  However, supply will need to increase for prices not to resume their upward march.

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