Tuesday, September 7, 2010

Where is the US Oil Uptick Coming From?

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) divides the country up into five regions as follows:

To give some feeling of where the oil in the US comes from, we can look at a stacked area graph of production by PADD region (since 1981, ie comfortably after the peak in 1970):

To make it clear where the minor resurgence now is coming from, we can look at the same data on a line graph.  This goes through June 2010:

The resurgence has not come across the board - the West continues an unbroken decline, for example.  Instead, the recent increases are mainly focussed in the Gulf States (where production has now been restored to a level similar to that before Hurricanes Katrina and Rita), and the Midwest, which has been trending upward after a long decline.


Anonymous said...

Within the gulf coast area, that increase is narrowly concentrated on 4 fields. To quote the STEO from August '09:

"Oil production from the Thunder Horse, Tahiti, Shenzi, and
Atlantis Federal offshore fields is expected to account for about 14 percent of lower‐48
crude oil production
by the fourth quarter of 2010.


KLR said...

Chart of month to month change in production, Fed GOM and PADDs 2-5 (1 isn't really worth tracking): http://s777.photobucket.com/albums/yy52/TheDudePeakOil/?action=view&current=USProductionPADDsChangesMonthly2005.png

Like I said yesterday most of the fresh production is from the GOM and ND Bakken - MT Bakken is actually in decline, being less juicy or whatever. Throw in flat production from TX courtesy EOR drilling in the Permian - maybe even courtesy of Jeffery Brown? - and Bob's your uncle.

275 kb/d of Mexican refining is down, so that flush production may simply be headed south to arbitrage.