Monday, September 13, 2010
I have been tracking for several months the fact that global oil production seems to have stopped recovering, most recently analyzing the stagnation since February here. Recall this graph:
showing that, following the decline associated with the Great Recession (July 2008 to spring 2009) there was a recovery through about February of this year, after which production has been flat.
This obviously raises questions about which countries are consuming less oil. I initially looked at the EIA data (Table 1.7 of the International Petroleum Monthly), which currently has monthly data for the OECD through May (y-axis is thousands of barrels/day)
This shows that since the spring there has been several million barrels/day of lost demand split between Europe and "Other OECD" - comprising Japan, Korea, Australia, Canada, New Zealand. This is more than enough to explain the flattening of the global production curve. Meanwhile, US demand has been flattish - neither growing much nor shrinking much.
So the stagnation seems to be mainly coming from the non-US OECD.