Tuesday, September 14, 2010
A little more on yesterday's discussion, which turns out to be a trickier issue than it looks. The above shows recent consumption for the major OECD countries (EIA numbers again). As you can see, much of the non-European decline since this spring is in Japan. However, it turns out that Japan's consumption is highly seasonal:
So a lot of that decline since January in non-Europe-non-US OECD is due to seasonal factors in Japan. We don't normally think of global oil production/consumption having a lot of seasonality, but that's because it's a sum of a sufficiently large number of pieces with approximately canceling seasonality. Clearly, in attributing change, we are going to have to be more careful about accounting for that - more in a future post.
Notwithstanding the seasonality, that's a pretty dramatic decline in Japanese consumption in recent years...
Posted by Stuart Staniford at 5:58 AM