The Only Thing Worse Than a Federal Government...

Iranian Oil Production Declines Further in April

Spanish House Prices

Sharp Uptick in Iraqi Oil Production

Greek House Prices

Crude and Condensate Reached New Highs in Jan

April Monthly Oil Supply

Feeling my Inner Kunstler

EU Commission Forecasts Pain Almost Over

Hansen on Climate

NYT op-ed yesterday:

Canada’s tar sands, deposits of sand saturated with bitumen, contain twice the amount of carbon dioxide emitted by global oil use in our entire history. If we were to fully exploit this new oil source, and continue to burn our conventional oil, gas and coal supplies, concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere eventually would reach levels higher than in the Pliocene era, more than 2.5 million years ago, when sea level was at least 50 feet higher than it is now. That level of heat-trapping gases would assure that the disintegration of the ice sheets would accelerate out of control. Sea levels would rise and destroy coastal cities. Global temperatures would become intolerable. Twenty to 50 percent of the planet’s species would be driven to extinction. Civilization would be at risk.

That is the long-term outlook. But near-term, things will be bad enough. Over the next several decades, the Western United States and the semi-arid region from North Dakota to Texas will develop semi-permanent drought, with rain, when it does come, occurring in extreme events with heavy flooding. Economic losses would be incalculable. More and more of the Midwest would be a dust bowl. California’s Central Valley could no longer be irrigated. Food prices would rise to unprecedented levels.

If this sounds apocalyptic, it is. This is why we need to reduce emissions dramatically. President Obama has the power not only to deny tar sands oil additional access to Gulf Coast refining, which Canada desires in part for export markets, but also to encourage economic incentives to leave tar sands and other dirty fuels in the ground.

The near-term picture will not be influenced very much by particular choices on the tar-sands (though the long-term certainly will). Still, Hansen is a first rate scientist and not to be ignored lightly. Those are indeed pretty apocalyptic predictions.

Update (5/11/12): Andy Revkin solicited some dissenting views from other scientists here.

OPEC: Global Fuel Supply Flat in April (plus Europe)

Republicans against Small Government and Market Discipline

This is just an amusing footnote to my post the other day about how my local coal power plant is shut down:

In an effort to keep AES Cayuga open, the bankrupt coal-fired power plant in Lansing, Sen. Michael Nozzolio, R-Fayette, Seneca County, purposed legislation Tuesday to aid the plant.

AES Cayuga has not produced power since early March because it cannot compete with power plants using lower cost natural gas, AES Cayuga Plant Manager Jerry Goodenough told The Journal last week.

This proposed legislation, titled S.6842, recommends the establishment of a power purchase agreement with the New York State Power Authority. The legislation would ensure that the AES Cayuga plant reopens and remains operational for a minimum of three years.

Under the legislation, energy purchased from the AES Cayuga plant would be directed to supplement the state's ReCharge NY program. The ReCharge NY program allocates low-cost power to New York State employers.

The plant filed for bankruptcy in Dec. 2011 citing persistent adverse conditions in the New York power generation market. The company has sustained losses of tens of millions of dollars since 2010.

Emphasis mine.

Timing of China's Slowdown

One Way the US is like the PIIGS

Natural Gas shutting down Coal Power Plants

No Sign of Relief in Eurozone

GDP, oil consumption and prices

US Oil Consumption and Oil Prices

Latest Global Trade

US Drought Map for Week of April 14

Being a Little Less Gloomy

I have a little bit more to say on yesterday's gloomy robotics post.  The point I wanted to add is that this will inevitably become a huge political issue.  At the moment, the consensus that innovation is always good is not seriously questioned on either side of the political spectrum, except by a relatively small fringe (though Kevin Drum - definitely not a fringe character - did link to yesterday's post in broad agreement).  But as the processes of automation and technological unemployment continue, this will inevitably change.  Obviously, we will not create 100% unemployment amongst humans without provoking a massive political backlash along the way.

The nature of the kinds of exponentials involved is such that it will appear as though change is relatively slow until suddenly robots are popping up everywhere and job loss is threatening people who matter (or at least their kids).  So at some point - perhaps in the 2020s or 2030s - this will become a red hot political issue that everyone is talking about.  Then it will be possible to campaign for reform (reform being the preferable alternative to revolution - but one that doesn't get much traction until there is a credible fear of revolution).

So the task now is mainly one of thinking - of figuring out when the moment comes, what should we be trying to do?  What kinds of cultural changes will be needed, and what kinds of changes to legal institutions can produce a reasonably enduring human society in which people aren't like something out of WALL-E?  Clearly the main changes will have to come in the way we think about and regulate the innovation process.

Global Robot Population

The Median Influencer

This blog post is being largely outsourced from this Interfluidity post Depression is a Choice by the often brilliantly insightful Steve Randy Waldman:

Usually, economists are admirably catholic about the preferences of the objects they study. They infer desire by observing behavior, listening to what people do more than to what they say. But with respect to national polities, macroeconomists presume the existence of an overwhelming preference for GDP growth and full employment that simply does not exist. They act as though any other set of preferences would be unreasonable, unthinkable.

But the preferences of developed, aging polities — first Japan, now the United States and Europe — are obvious to a dispassionate observer. Their overwhelming priority is to protect the purchasing power of incumbent creditors. That’s it. That’s everything. All other considerations are secondary. These preferences are reflected in what the polities do, how they behave. They swoop in with incredible speed and force to bail out the financial sectors in which creditors are invested, trampling over prior norms and laws as necessary. The same preferences are reflected in what the polities omit to do. They do not pursue monetary policy with sufficient force to ensure expenditure growth even at risk of inflation. They do not purse fiscal policy with sufficient force to ensure employment even at risk of inflation. They remain forever vigilant that neither monetary ease nor fiscal profligacy engender inflation. The tepid policy experiments that are occasionally embarked upon they sabotage at the very first hint of inflation. The purchasing power of holders of nominal debt must not be put at risk. That is the overriding preference, in context of which observed behavior is rational.

March Iranian and Saudi Oil Production

March Liquid Fuel Supply

European Industrial Production

Up half a percent in February - that's the second half decent month in a row.  Hmmm...

Male Employment/Population Ratio

Spatial Coherence of Illinois Corn Yields

PIIGS Unemployment

European Retail Trade Still Trending Negative

Slowing Rossby Waves Leading to Extreme Weather?

Oil Wells Drilled

Latest Brent-WTI Spread

European Unemployment Still Increasing

The Composition of US Oil Production

Gorgeous Wind Visualization

Check out Hint.fm's stunningly beautiful animation of the current pattern of US surface wind.  They have a gallery of past states too.

Latest Iranian and Saudi Oil Production

US Rig Count Trends

US vs European Recessions

US Well Footage Stats

What US Energy Independence Would Take

February Climate

Latest EIA Fuel Breakdown

Mr Al-Naimi Beats Oil Markets with Jawbone Again

In a rather breathless top-of-website story, the FT's Guy Chazan writes:

Saudi Arabia’s powerful oil minister, Ali Naimi, made a rare intervention into overheating oil markets on Tuesday, declaring that high oil prices were “unjustified” and vowing that the kingdom would boost its output by as much as 25 per cent if necessary.

Mr Chazan must not have been paying attention or he would know that Mr al-Naimi trying to cause the supply and demand curves for oil to intersect at a different place by jawboning them is a regular feature of the oil world.  It usually has a rather small effect on the price that lasts a day or two.  The thing that would actually affect prices, pumping more oil, he always rejects on the same tired grounds:

Euro Area Employment

Global Fuel Supply Flattening?

Latest US Drought Map

Energy Evolution of A House

Sanity Checking an Energy Improvement Proposal (II)

Sanity Checking an Energy Improvement Proposal (I)

Iranian vs Saudi Oil Production History

Better Iranian Oil Production Chart

Iranian Oil Production Declining

Yergin Influence Index

European vs US Unemployment Rates