Thursday, March 15, 2012
This is interesting. In the OPEC MOMR released a few days ago, they have sharply revised down the level of liquid fuel supply for the past few months (by the best part of 1mbd). That in turn has given a shape to the average production curve (above) of flattening off in recent months (after the sharp rise in the fall of 2011). It's a bit too soon to read too much into that (given that the IEA is not deigning to release their total oil supply number in the free summary lately and that the EIA is always a few months behind). Still it's interesting and certainly could help to explain the sharp upward price movement of the last couple of months:
Actually stagnant production could easily be as important as fear over war with Iran.
I will post the total liquids to crude+condensate comparison in a day or two.