tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-52354192634144534222024-03-13T01:05:30.519-07:00Early WarningRational Analysis of Global Civilizational RiskStuart Stanifordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.comBlogger1101125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-14769439989800327032020-04-16T17:06:00.000-07:002020-04-16T19:28:42.649-07:00New York Not Close to Exiting Lockdown<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjklPID-30adt02gNGEKbx7oL9LtIUaiNpu4jZ_GsjJNQdDiUL5L0BAvZ7bBHg7dO-eI-usWH0QNGbDeNgZJKcMTzxgaQ9SHzpV_NLzUmwBd0n1o4I0DFIojiTL8PxVtnEvy5d6Qqvc__Es/s1600/Screen+Shot+2020-04-16+at+7.47.39+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1170" data-original-width="1600" height="292" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjklPID-30adt02gNGEKbx7oL9LtIUaiNpu4jZ_GsjJNQdDiUL5L0BAvZ7bBHg7dO-eI-usWH0QNGbDeNgZJKcMTzxgaQ9SHzpV_NLzUmwBd0n1o4I0DFIojiTL8PxVtnEvy5d6Qqvc__Es/s400/Screen+Shot+2020-04-16+at+7.47.39+PM.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
</div>
<a name='more'></a>The above shows the daily count of new Covid cases in New York state (blue) and the seven day centered moving average (orange). The black line marks when the Governor issued his "PAUSE" (shutdown) order. It continues to appear that around 12-14 days after that order, cases peaked and are now in a slow decline.<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
The quality of this date is appalling - many symptomatic people are not getting tested, the criteria to get a test vary widely depending on location within the state, and have changed over time in poorly documented ways. The seeming day-to-day noise in the data is also much too large - a random process producing a count approaching 10000 should have tiny day-to-day fluctuations, so something is very wrong with the data collection - possibly the count is terminated at different times of day or something of that kind.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
One measure of the data quality is the fraction of new test results that are positive, shown here:</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh89VSozpuOL0ioc5s1k1K_NGomKBYjIguRG4jGQiYqIHCjQN0ARa_eSL2aZxeSvjT23QRoKTweBGa3qHnMwi75AZaLc_kZEhgBDMry0Iz_leF6jndlS37i1BpEbHOpqonp29qwgnummot7/s1600/Screen+Shot+2020-04-16+at+7.48.28+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1130" data-original-width="1460" height="308" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh89VSozpuOL0ioc5s1k1K_NGomKBYjIguRG4jGQiYqIHCjQN0ARa_eSL2aZxeSvjT23QRoKTweBGa3qHnMwi75AZaLc_kZEhgBDMry0Iz_leF6jndlS37i1BpEbHOpqonp29qwgnummot7/s400/Screen+Shot+2020-04-16+at+7.48.28+PM.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
It peaked at around 50% (ignoring whatever caused that outlier at 75%) and has now declined into the mid thirties. That suggests that a little more testing is happening relative to the size of the epidemic, and tends to confirm the idea that the slight decline in new cases is real.<br />
<br />
There is no sign at all that we can exit lockdown any time soon. To remove most of the lockdown measures, it would be good to have few cases (in the hundreds statewide), and be aggressively chasing them all down, testing all their contacts and confining anyone found positive or symptomatic. That would imply a positive test ratio of 5% or less.<br />
<br />
We would appear to be months away from these kinds of exit criteria on present trends.<br />
<br />
One possible new factor is the governor's order, taking effect yesterday, that everyone needs to wear masks anywhere social distancing may be imperfect. We don't know how well this will work in New York, but it's at least possible it will cause another significant decline in the case volume. We'll find out in 12-14 days.Stuart Stanifordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-56459465915168016122020-04-08T15:14:00.001-07:002020-04-08T15:25:02.228-07:00Is New York Containing Covid?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiDYjIkUx3b8BweJg13nCGvdg8pTPCcacudLy7FvAz-dEKJCeEDGPeBmNNeRbFX8wnChKdBJUE0xm7vKt-rQ5PV5ECjYHBIzGNqnTE5h67aP24Q337NlgUbmerNRBEIohulbK5R9lhWe1nJ/s1600/Screen+Shot+2020-04-08+at+5.51.11+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1174" data-original-width="1600" height="292" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiDYjIkUx3b8BweJg13nCGvdg8pTPCcacudLy7FvAz-dEKJCeEDGPeBmNNeRbFX8wnChKdBJUE0xm7vKt-rQ5PV5ECjYHBIzGNqnTE5h67aP24Q337NlgUbmerNRBEIohulbK5R9lhWe1nJ/s400/Screen+Shot+2020-04-08+at+5.51.11+PM.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<a name='more'></a>The above shows the new daily positive test count (and a couple of moving averages) in New York state. That's the lines in the middle ending at around the 9000/day level. The general impression of this is that the "PAUSE" (stay at home) order that Governor Cuomo ordered as of March 22nd has, after a two week delay, caused a leveling off in new cases, but not a decline - though it's very early to be sure. We would expect something like a 10-14 delay as there's a five day incubation period from infection to symptoms, and then more delay getting a test and waiting for the result.<br />
<br />
The blue line is new daily hospitalizations. I don't see the decline in this recently as a good thing - given that the positive test load is not declining, this looks more likely an issue of hospital capacity than of new demand for hospitals declining. There is significant reporting now suggesting that a lot more New Yorkers than usual are <a href="https://gothamist.com/news/surge-number-new-yorkers-dying-home-officials-suspect-undercount-covid-19-related-deaths?fbclid=IwAR3GgdZ4lqHq2IIYEHaZlOePyU_YuvuL4bS8AsNaQiQsxpc5dlpSQrpQp_Y" target="_blank">dying at home</a> because they either can't or won't go to hospital when very sick. The yellow line at the top is total number currently in hospital with Covid. Again, the rate of increase declining seems like a bad thing in the absence of a decline in new cases.<br />
<br />
Note that the data here is of extremely poor quality and it's very hard to be sure of any conclusion. For example, here is the fraction of new daily tests that are positive:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhdo5oCHBO7oJKfklw5NPZrQneMh9iV8fgEDfKOa-wunvLNH-Ytatw385oL5ALmhRyxHIFTuPCVwO3-omtc1bDfdEGIoGUtSVQ-R0jbmCsL2zKqbuXZHZcRTaPDCUhjkZD6IZF9s0VhJUMP/s1600/Screen+Shot+2020-04-08+at+6.01.54+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1126" data-original-width="1462" height="307" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhdo5oCHBO7oJKfklw5NPZrQneMh9iV8fgEDfKOa-wunvLNH-Ytatw385oL5ALmhRyxHIFTuPCVwO3-omtc1bDfdEGIoGUtSVQ-R0jbmCsL2zKqbuXZHZcRTaPDCUhjkZD6IZF9s0VhJUMP/s400/Screen+Shot+2020-04-08+at+6.01.54+PM.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
This indicates the testing infrastructure is very maxed out - people are only getting tested if they very likely have the disease, and no doubt lots of milder cases are being missed. Thus the positive test count in the first graph above is likely a gross underestimate. Note the tests are thought to have a 30% false negative rate, so the ratio shouldn't go above 70%. If all was well, and we were vigorously chasing down contacts of cases, less than 5% of tests would come back positive. The slight decline in recent days might be the beginning of a good thing (or it might be a sign of more epidemic outside the New York City area, where capacity is not so maxed out).<br />
<br />
All told, I think we can conclude that the PAUSE has definitely had a substantial effect on slowing the epidemic. It's very hard to be sure, but the reproduction number might be right around the 1.0 threshold, giving an ongoing epidemic of roughly constant size. The hospital system is badly maxed out and there are a lot deaths outside of the system.<br />
<br />
A few weeks ago, I speculated "New York is in serious and, I would guess, irrecoverable containment failure." That now seems to be hanging in the balance. I also suggested it was about to become "the greatest shitshow on the planet" and that part seems right.Stuart Stanifordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-20999739270072323942020-03-23T15:29:00.001-07:002020-03-23T15:52:44.417-07:00New York vs Italy<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgshY6ishYOi8GGEkSX7ReOSRLHpv3ZU6kraAZSX5NwCmKEXMtAwfsP_RbhqCRCza-tNXulW9Hr8bIrZGZBzgIdtBR-ASYRGh1XYq13jauP7wFNvQJAWXI0DvMlsYsDuPCApRmmYpY-tr1t/s1600/Screen+Shot+2020-03-23+at+6.23.41+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1275" data-original-width="1600" height="317" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgshY6ishYOi8GGEkSX7ReOSRLHpv3ZU6kraAZSX5NwCmKEXMtAwfsP_RbhqCRCza-tNXulW9Hr8bIrZGZBzgIdtBR-ASYRGh1XYq13jauP7wFNvQJAWXI0DvMlsYsDuPCApRmmYpY-tr1t/s400/Screen+Shot+2020-03-23+at+6.23.41+PM.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
I think what is happening here is that Italy is just barely maybe starting to contain the virus. New York is in serious and, I would guess, irrecoverable containment failure. Italy has been locked down since March 9th. New York is still far from fully locked down.<br />
<br />
The data are for New York State, but it's basically driven by the NYC metro area.Stuart Stanifordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-56942482706125978552020-03-22T12:59:00.002-07:002020-03-22T13:07:10.700-07:00NYC Update - 46.5% increase Sunday over Saturday.<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh3KMt0mM-fgKvU8WwY_xjPz8aBwByu9_XzVUtWEF8XQss5bDIEpZgYc70Qt8c-zreYoospBTR4qBPDX6V2BdB2vwKUH7ZBLqZ815O8_hRyM68V6tQ7Om3iDzv_6Fap_RBg35G2DcHYMhfx/s1600/Screen+Shot+2020-03-22+at+3.44.49+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1383" data-original-width="1408" height="392" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh3KMt0mM-fgKvU8WwY_xjPz8aBwByu9_XzVUtWEF8XQss5bDIEpZgYc70Qt8c-zreYoospBTR4qBPDX6V2BdB2vwKUH7ZBLqZ815O8_hRyM68V6tQ7Om3iDzv_6Fap_RBg35G2DcHYMhfx/s400/Screen+Shot+2020-03-22+at+3.44.49+PM.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<a name='more'></a><br />
Today's <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/22/nyregion/coronavirus-new-york-update.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage#link-4e11d506" target="_blank">number</a> for cases in NY is 15,168, a 46.5% increase over yesterday. I take this as confirmatory of <a href="http://earlywarn.blogspot.com/2020/03/we-are-about-to-lose-new-york-city-to.html" target="_blank">my thesis</a> about New York City. Above is an update of the graph from that piece showing the additional datum. It revises the blue line up a bit, and the red line down a bit, and advances the extrapolation a bit. It suggests the New York metro area currently is incubating somewhere in the mid to high six figures in infections.Stuart Stanifordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-38093915590472992712020-03-22T06:34:00.000-07:002020-03-22T07:28:18.738-07:00We Are About to Lose New York City to Covid<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9G3ULow-XTTSE8TYKPtChbDPQfeP54MQrkUQzOz93RmQLzNhEbgweL0BaNFlOcj8_A-q1v9mMYHSdlqLBuiilamffSFnfkp8a6yrn170qcnZbalz6ElAvGUv1rxAy3tuxY7hg-cXPIhmo/s1600/Screen+Shot+2020-03-22+at+8.28.37+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1386" data-original-width="1408" height="393" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9G3ULow-XTTSE8TYKPtChbDPQfeP54MQrkUQzOz93RmQLzNhEbgweL0BaNFlOcj8_A-q1v9mMYHSdlqLBuiilamffSFnfkp8a6yrn170qcnZbalz6ElAvGUv1rxAy3tuxY7hg-cXPIhmo/s400/Screen+Shot+2020-03-22+at+8.28.37+AM.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<a name='more'></a><br />
The above data shows the Covid-19 case count in New York (from <a href="https://www.lohud.com/story/news/health/2020/03/21/ny-covid-19-cases-tops-10-000-masks-ventilators-secured/2890820001/" target="_blank">here</a>). The data are for New York State, but the case count is almost completely dominated by New York City and its suburbs. I plotted the data only from the day before it crossed 100, and the scale is logarithmic. The bottom scale is the date in March, and the graph runs to 35 (that is, April 4th). Thus it extends two weeks from the last data point, which was yesterday (March 21st).<br />
<br />
The blue straight line is an exponential fit to all the data here, and that translates to a 40% daily increase. The red line is an eyeball fit only to the last six days, and translates to a daily increase of about 47%. I have extrapolated those two lines by nine days.<br />
<br />
You can see that these rates result in crossing 1m cases around the end of March, or in the first week of April. The population of the New York Metropolitan area is around 20m people, and that is denoted as the very top of the graph. You can see that if these spread rates continue, the epidemic will saturate some time in April - most people in the NYC metro area will have caught it, and then the herd immunity will be high enough that further spread will slow.<br />
<br />
Probably this is driven by the extremely high densities of people in New York, especially Manhattan. Probably the subway system is a key vector since in normal operation it requires New Yorkers to stand shoulder-to-shoulder for half an hour at at time. In those circumstances, anyone infectious on the subway could easily infect dozens of other people. But just walking around on the street in Manhattan under normal conditions is probably somewhat conducive to spreading the virus.<br />
<br />
It seems it would be difficult to stop this process now The subway cannot be shut down, and the population of essential workers may be large enough that transmission amongst them is high enough that the epidemic will not be stopped and then they will infect many others (by definition of being essential, they must interact with others).<br />
<br />
It is probable the lockdown taking effect tonight will have some slowing effect. However, consider the time factors in the disease. The data in the graph show positive test results. According to the <a href="https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf" target="_blank">WHO joint mission to China</a>, mean time from infection to symptoms is 5 days. I have marked that as a black double-ended arrow above. However, there's also the time from starting to get any symptoms to actually having a known test result. That is is unknown in NY, but has probably also been several days. I have shown a four day bar on the graph. So there is a nine(ish) or so day lag from infections that have already been seeded now to possible test results in the future. So the next nine(ish) days of data would be driven by infections that have already occurred under non-locked-down conditions. So there's probably already 100k to 1m cases seeded in NYC today, and these will drive a lot of transmission within the enclaves separated by the lockdown.<br />
<br />
However, the process will not be well documented going forward - the volume of spread is likely to far exceed the testing capacity, and indeed it <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/03/21/coronavirus-testing-strategyshift/" target="_blank">already is</a>.<br />
<br />
It will not be possible to get relevant quantities of PPE, ventilators and extra hospital capacity into New York this fast. Most people will not get much if any medical attention. Stats elsewhere suggest 15-20% of people with this disease need hospitalization, and they will not get it. About a third to half of those will die to judge by the experience in Hubei and Italy. So that suggests we'll see 1m to 2m fatal cases in the New York area next month. New York will become the global icon of the disease (taking over from Italy, which in turn had taken over from China).<br />
<br />
As this unfolds, terrified people will stream out of New York City to anywhere else they can get to. They will bring the virus with them. Even under normal conditions, New York is a very highly connected city. The right thing to do will be for authorities not to let people leave, but instead to close down the roads, airports, etc out of the NYC area to all but HGV and emergency vehicle traffic. However, what we've consistently seen in this epidemic is that a virus growing at 30% to 40% a day is moving too fast for western governments to think it through in time. The US federal government has been particularly useless so far, so an effective and timely federal response seems far from assured. My fear is that what may happen instead is that New York City will then put much of the rest of the US into a state of uncontainable epidemic.<br />
<br />
Just a note on my expertise, since I'm making strong claims here. I do not have a human epidemiology background, but I am a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=dO6VNkYAAAAJ" target="_blank">legit expert</a> in computer worm epidemiology, and the considerations are somewhat similar.Stuart Stanifordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-39988192080970701062020-03-17T03:48:00.000-07:002020-03-17T03:50:18.281-07:00Containing Covid-19 (Or Not)<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj22qyJeXfkQyEOB1CFPiM2kAMlVR4MeffUj2xJFRdqFv40GXGeFaiMfXW9DlZ0n6ok7EodzkXbmzEcpqGv1-OXkwdh20Rx6hbEHNC5tq-cA2Q8dY241JVkX3MUS5sfwpLBzHGMW4fzUszf/s1600/Screen+Shot+2020-03-17+at+6.31.38+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1393" data-original-width="1458" height="382" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj22qyJeXfkQyEOB1CFPiM2kAMlVR4MeffUj2xJFRdqFv40GXGeFaiMfXW9DlZ0n6ok7EodzkXbmzEcpqGv1-OXkwdh20Rx6hbEHNC5tq-cA2Q8dY241JVkX3MUS5sfwpLBzHGMW4fzUszf/s400/Screen+Shot+2020-03-17+at+6.31.38+AM.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<a name='more'></a>In any given country, there are only two ways this virus ends. Either it spreads everywhere, completely overwhelms the health system, and culls 5-10% of the human population (and leaves some additional number with permanent lung damage). Or it gets contained - all the cases get tracked down, isolated, and the epidemic is stopped.<br />
<br />
China and Korea have demonstrated that containment is possible. The above graph shows the five day compound growth rate in the countries I'm tracking. Those two countries are clearly getting the virus under control. Japan is an intermediate case, and no-one knows whether to believe the Iranian numbers.<br />
<br />
Of the western countries, Italy has made some progress with the school closures and lockdown, but the health system is badly overwhelmed, and it's still spreading with a doubling time of around four days (19%/day growth rate in cases). Probably the full benefit of the lockdown is not apparent yet, both because it takes a while to get enforcement really working, and because cases take a while to incubate from initial infection to being diagnosed. It's not clear which of the two possible endings Italy is headed for.<br />
<br />
The US and the UK are both still with 30%/day growth rates, which is a doubling time of just over 2 1/2 days. No doubt mandatory lockdowns are imminent.<br />
<br />
Here are the crude fatality rates (current known deaths over current known cases). Note that Italy is up over 7% - reflecting both an overwhelmed health system and an older population.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjAl70wgGo_G249C0wFtZKhogHmDUo3c1nfZK8RpDV8eBnWjAUyW1krJvjw5Ga_vvSAk_N5RD-9AXaGNxsx236ifWcYaPfu-giymGYyOFhxhAeuugFWPxnJPMIPhSqzFviFreG_rUutfgd_/s1600/Screen+Shot+2020-03-17+at+6.45.47+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1390" data-original-width="1462" height="380" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjAl70wgGo_G249C0wFtZKhogHmDUo3c1nfZK8RpDV8eBnWjAUyW1krJvjw5Ga_vvSAk_N5RD-9AXaGNxsx236ifWcYaPfu-giymGYyOFhxhAeuugFWPxnJPMIPhSqzFviFreG_rUutfgd_/s400/Screen+Shot+2020-03-17+at+6.45.47+AM.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />Stuart Stanifordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-66202245076104810702020-03-11T06:34:00.001-07:002020-03-11T06:35:23.369-07:00Covid-19 update<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjuOhUvyTgYhHIJA9S8F4nzoLWtrz1o02EbvhzyXP6Yomi163R-Vd3QPYSWouUTH3E3yLdOjQLP5Y8OEO2pB_QNA3DjvNVyPGIftfbEcGcgaUHygiVAmvINPBVGHsB0Mi-AhlmJsTTUa6jz/s1600/Screen+Shot+2020-03-11+at+9.12.17+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1386" data-original-width="1600" height="346" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjuOhUvyTgYhHIJA9S8F4nzoLWtrz1o02EbvhzyXP6Yomi163R-Vd3QPYSWouUTH3E3yLdOjQLP5Y8OEO2pB_QNA3DjvNVyPGIftfbEcGcgaUHygiVAmvINPBVGHsB0Mi-AhlmJsTTUa6jz/s400/Screen+Shot+2020-03-11+at+9.12.17+AM.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<a name='more'></a><br />
A very quick update on my <a href="http://earlywarn.blogspot.com/2020/03/covid-19-infection-rates.html" target="_blank">last post.</a> The above shows the same graph as before but with more data. Korea continues to get their infection under control, Italy is really struggling to do the same (and reports of conditions in the health care system there are <a href="https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1237142891077697538.html?fbclid=IwAR1cuVFqmAaQzrNRsbGZtgxz3PgXxin0SJK7tlPpM2TEQuJN5recN_XTGjY" target="_blank">getting</a> really <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/coronavirus-italy-cases-deaths-doctor-panic-lombardy-bergamo-a9389911.html?fbclid=IwAR0h64ImdxUfL5D7-m99nYnoVdedav45AOE9l80tUxABWpp4Nv19UwJWflk" target="_blank">gruesome</a>). Hopefully the Italian curve will start to bend now that the country is in lockdown.<br />
<br />
My slapdash extrapolation of the US case curve (the dashed line) has performed just about flawlessly - the US is on track to have a higher number of cases (relative to population) than China within a few days (well, it's not clear how meaningful the comparison is, since it's not clear that either country's numbers are very accurate). There is no sign of any meaningful containment in the US so far (bending of the curve), and I do not expect any in the next week as the US is still in the process of solving its testing problems, and has not instituted mandatory social distancing at any scale.<br />
<br />
The UK has a similar trajectory to the US but a few days ahead (no doubt due to greater proximity to Italy). Japan is doing much better than most places - possibly because it did things like closing all schools fairly early, but still has not fully contained its epidemic.<br />
<br />
This second graph shows the crude death rate - total deaths as a fraction of total known cases. Of course, neither number might be exact - some cases never got diagnosed, or are not diagnosed yet, some people died misdiagnosed as some other kind of pneumonia. These are just the best numbers we have.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6WLd5QDF5lU99sOYHVHMS3NkXnzpKQamAY7-OCMvsQCzMxZeoqHb_YQ-zYL2Wn1WM6dkaGbJ0QMFuZNaGAQS_hzGO-eb_nOQnfKSuS7ByyuhyhEDiSqTPIFOj_QdRrdBGj_7im2kZr9Ft/s1600/Screen+Shot+2020-03-11+at+9.13.22+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1392" data-original-width="1464" height="380" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6WLd5QDF5lU99sOYHVHMS3NkXnzpKQamAY7-OCMvsQCzMxZeoqHb_YQ-zYL2Wn1WM6dkaGbJ0QMFuZNaGAQS_hzGO-eb_nOQnfKSuS7ByyuhyhEDiSqTPIFOj_QdRrdBGj_7im2kZr9Ft/s400/Screen+Shot+2020-03-11+at+9.13.22+AM.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
Korea continues to have a very low death rate, reflecting the benefit of a very well organized and extensive testing regime. The US death rate was for a while amongst the worst (representing the particularly poor testing regime in the US). However, Italy now has the worst ratio - presumably reflecting the fact that the health care system is overwhelmed and many patients are not receiving good care.Stuart Stanifordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-5667785882603498632020-03-05T18:53:00.000-08:002020-03-05T18:59:19.584-08:00Covid-19 Infection Rates<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgaSgXDnNFxBuKsySSU9-0zezy1cMTDnYkuIbNu2xMy_QTSxAPPOd5KYpNHvhXN2NnSw3T_ICBpDj3Jnyi1Cc8v0LHPQ1UUbEQCs6sxqkewB9WTZXIil5vwslCavNxYL90AbFtv2DuMaKQu/s1600/Screen+Shot+2020-03-05+at+9.30.54+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1382" data-original-width="1484" height="372" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgaSgXDnNFxBuKsySSU9-0zezy1cMTDnYkuIbNu2xMy_QTSxAPPOd5KYpNHvhXN2NnSw3T_ICBpDj3Jnyi1Cc8v0LHPQ1UUbEQCs6sxqkewB9WTZXIil5vwslCavNxYL90AbFtv2DuMaKQu/s400/Screen+Shot+2020-03-05+at+9.30.54+PM.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
The graph shows the number of cases of Covid-19 as a fraction of national population, for some countries of interest. The data are from the <a href="https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports" target="_blank">World Health Organization,</a> except for the US data which is from the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html" target="_blank">NYT</a>. The data may not all be reliable (eg both the BBC and the Washington Post have reported that Iranian hospitals have far more cases than is officially reported, and US testing and reporting still appears to be <a href="https://www.king5.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/life-care-center-kirkland-coronavirus-outbreak-family-reaction/281-a12650fb-6593-479d-9f67-2cb4e29a167b" target="_blank">shambolic</a>).<br />
<br />
The infection began and grew rapidly in China. You can see that the other countries have a pattern of a small number of cases that are well contained (folks coming from somewhere else who are in professionally managed medical isolation), followed by a "breakout" when the disease manages to slip the containment and start spreading through the general population. This leads (presumably after a delay) to a rise in cases. You can see that breakout in Korea around Feb 19th, in Italy about Feb 23rd, and late last week for the United States.<br />
<br />
The data suggest that China has its outbreak well under control. However, this took extreme measures with huge economic impact: for example, there has been a <a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coronavirus-slows-chinas-property-market-to-a-crawl-and-even-the-most-robust-real-estate-app-is-no-match-2020-02-18" target="_blank">90% collapse </a>in the rate of property sales. Korea also seems to be gaining control, and the growth rate of the Italian outbreak is declining. Both these countries and Iran have more cases, proportionally, than China.<br />
<br />
The US curve is accelerating as testing becomes more widespread. The current growth rate of known cases is about 10x per week. The dashed line is an eyeball extrapolation, which suggests the US is one to two weeks from the level at which other countries have started taking measures like closing all their schools, quarantining cities, etc.Stuart Stanifordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-17156527132378989452018-08-25T14:47:00.003-07:002018-08-30T05:04:50.706-07:00Global Carbon Sink Holding Up So Far<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEihgjhFjZNmcx7vJx4-jTMZ1wTipsF3AtnQUKD0ZO0hgxxB5j1-qdewX6S2vwALW7aUd9nnQwx1HSDGDdm1bjzuj0-4ctNaC9O4vsR1QGphNQzpNTUqN1xtd7TBM9lGbqSau8hpnJgPhoB6/s1600/Screen+Shot+2018-08-25+at+5.05.57+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1092" data-original-width="1600" height="272" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEihgjhFjZNmcx7vJx4-jTMZ1wTipsF3AtnQUKD0ZO0hgxxB5j1-qdewX6S2vwALW7aUd9nnQwx1HSDGDdm1bjzuj0-4ctNaC9O4vsR1QGphNQzpNTUqN1xtd7TBM9lGbqSau8hpnJgPhoB6/s400/Screen+Shot+2018-08-25+at+5.05.57+PM.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<a name='more'></a><br />
NOAA makes available <a href="ftp://aftp.cmdl.noaa.gov/products/trends/co2/co2_annmean_mlo.txt">data on CO<span style="font-size: x-small;">2</span> concentrations </a>on Mauna Loa in Hawaii that go back to 1959. This is the famous Keeling curve, and the annual averages look like this:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjybUxUyWoFXYbWzgHq3UdE_plYeE1RIPQbH9t4_SkeDzDeW_LMawrrepNVh-5hBlrLkguIdFxo7jRHdbRo9dvWtHz2UBvFsD0Tv8HAt9pzU-QgbXC7rcnoFrk1RHwSsGCeGUV1DPx_5tZ1/s1600/Screen+Shot+2018-08-25+at+5.02.33+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1093" data-original-width="1600" height="272" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjybUxUyWoFXYbWzgHq3UdE_plYeE1RIPQbH9t4_SkeDzDeW_LMawrrepNVh-5hBlrLkguIdFxo7jRHdbRo9dvWtHz2UBvFsD0Tv8HAt9pzU-QgbXC7rcnoFrk1RHwSsGCeGUV1DPx_5tZ1/s400/Screen+Shot+2018-08-25+at+5.02.33+PM.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
The data is approximated to a very high accuracy by a quadratic curve, indicating that the increase in carbon going into the atmosphere each year is itself increasing linearly. This next graph compares the annual increase in carbon in the atmosphere to fossil fuel emissions of carbon (<a href="https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html">from BP)</a>:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSsozLk9C9UcNJCRfhhtkcT1IWgD__VC0NKAdlOx_x5vrnaowD6XtBGZp8kFdJqpXHrmIfjepj_NB0TOM7S_Nw3PIz2UVSKggB6BNsiyCH1paX3c3JW_okFxiYIahRdYkeJkWJ2p4FX3gd/s1600/Screen+Shot+2018-08-25+at+5.03.38+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1095" data-original-width="1600" height="273" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSsozLk9C9UcNJCRfhhtkcT1IWgD__VC0NKAdlOx_x5vrnaowD6XtBGZp8kFdJqpXHrmIfjepj_NB0TOM7S_Nw3PIz2UVSKggB6BNsiyCH1paX3c3JW_okFxiYIahRdYkeJkWJ2p4FX3gd/s400/Screen+Shot+2018-08-25+at+5.03.38+PM.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
(You can convert the concentration of CO<span style="font-size: x-small;">2</span> changes to absolute amounts if you know the mass of the atmosphere and the weight of CO<span style="font-size: x-small;">2</span> molecules). Since the amount of carbon in the atmosphere is increasing slower than carbon emissions, clearly some of the emissions are absorbed (by the ocean and by land plants) each year. The fraction of emissions absorbed is almost constant, but has increased slightly over time:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgUo4uskmSU6HCCwvI5FHI4_Ie9W4BPRd2b2c5mvL9H4aw4IyKOa3iLLkMUNSzN9OssGpE8L2MZnwOT9F_qPn3Z4glR21RnXX2M0-aR6Sz2FES8eYGImQHi2dvN1ypBHj1bN6qd3g39BdBL/s1600/Screen+Shot+2018-08-25+at+5.04.55+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1093" data-original-width="1600" height="272" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgUo4uskmSU6HCCwvI5FHI4_Ie9W4BPRd2b2c5mvL9H4aw4IyKOa3iLLkMUNSzN9OssGpE8L2MZnwOT9F_qPn3Z4glR21RnXX2M0-aR6Sz2FES8eYGImQHi2dvN1ypBHj1bN6qd3g39BdBL/s400/Screen+Shot+2018-08-25+at+5.04.55+PM.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
But I think a more interesting way to look at the question is this. Think of the sink as reflecting the fact that the CO<span style="font-size: x-small;">2</span> in the atmosphere is not in equilibrium with the CO<span style="font-size: x-small;">2</span> in the ocean and terrestrial ecosystems. These latter components change slowly - the ocean is huge and takes around a thousand years to turn over, so changes in the atmosphere in the last few decades are far from fully equilibriated. Likewise, changes in terrestrial ecosystems have only just begun.<br />
<br />
From that perspective, we might expect the amount of carbon being absorbed by the ocean and biosphere to be proportional to how far the current atmospheric concentration is from pre-industrial concentrations (generally believed to be about 280ppm). If we plot this - the size of the annual carbon sink vs the departure from pre-industrial, we see that it is indeed linear:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEihgjhFjZNmcx7vJx4-jTMZ1wTipsF3AtnQUKD0ZO0hgxxB5j1-qdewX6S2vwALW7aUd9nnQwx1HSDGDdm1bjzuj0-4ctNaC9O4vsR1QGphNQzpNTUqN1xtd7TBM9lGbqSau8hpnJgPhoB6/s1600/Screen+Shot+2018-08-25+at+5.05.57+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1092" data-original-width="1600" height="272" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEihgjhFjZNmcx7vJx4-jTMZ1wTipsF3AtnQUKD0ZO0hgxxB5j1-qdewX6S2vwALW7aUd9nnQwx1HSDGDdm1bjzuj0-4ctNaC9O4vsR1QGphNQzpNTUqN1xtd7TBM9lGbqSau8hpnJgPhoB6/s400/Screen+Shot+2018-08-25+at+5.05.57+PM.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
There are of course substantial year to year fluctuations depending on just how well global plants grew in any particular year (given weather). But if you try fitting a quadratic to that data (allowing for the possibility of the sink degrading over time), it lies exactly on the linear curve - there is no indication of a tailing off.<br />
<br />
This is somewhat reassuring with respect to the "Inevitable Near Term Human Extinction" (INTHE) <a href="http://www.lifeworth.com/deepadaptation.pdf">view of climate change.</a> One class of mechanisms that could lead to a <a href="http://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/early/2018/07/31/1810141115.full.pdf">runaway climate feedback </a>would be if the biosphere were to start to turn from a net sink to a net source as a result of climate change - for example, forests burning, dying back from disease, the Amazon turning to savannah etc. While all of these things are happening to a modest degree, the fact that overall, the global climate sink continues to behave in a predictable linear way suggests that this particular class of runaway feedbacks are not biting hard yet.<br />
<br />
This is an update of a post of mine from <a href="http://earlywarn.blogspot.com/2012/10/so-far-so-good-global-carbon-sink-in.html">six years ago.</a> The conclusion hasn't changed with six more years of data.Stuart Stanifordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-91596164545640645192018-04-15T17:22:00.000-07:002018-04-15T17:38:42.921-07:00The Wake-Up Call from David Buckel<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg1OZDf2ocvYba-ISVtrwi95NdHYs3keX40mTW9Up3OMcA6S-T46LJGNK8bW4lerzRQcGmamvft-KHF2t1Nbqc2P3zee_71zf54uudfroJEjI5k9s5aniG43XsrlItMxPbJkJZQvQQCoyHz/s1600/Screen+Shot+2018-04-15+at+7.54.40+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="939" data-original-width="1600" height="233" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg1OZDf2ocvYba-ISVtrwi95NdHYs3keX40mTW9Up3OMcA6S-T46LJGNK8bW4lerzRQcGmamvft-KHF2t1Nbqc2P3zee_71zf54uudfroJEjI5k9s5aniG43XsrlItMxPbJkJZQvQQCoyHz/s400/Screen+Shot+2018-04-15+at+7.54.40+PM.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<a name='more'></a>I have been profoundly shocked and moved this evening by the news of the <a href="http://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/charred-body-found-prospect-park-walking-path-article-1.3933598">death of David Buckel</a>:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
“I am David Buckel and I just killed myself by fire as a protest suicide,” read a hand-written suicide note left near the blackened circle of burned grass. “I apologize to you for the mess.” </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
A second, longer note — left with the first inside an envelope marked “For the police” — said Buckel doused himself in “fossil fuel” before starting the fatal fire as a metaphor for the destruction of the planet. </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
“My early death by fossil fuel reflects what we are doing to ourselves,” he wrote. “A lifetime of service may best be preserved by giving a life . . . Honorable purpose in life invites honorable purchase in death. </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
“I hope it is an honorable death that might serve others.”</blockquote>
I didn't know his name until today (more <a href="https://ilsr.org/tribute-david-buckel/">here from someone who did know him)</a>. Perhaps there's more back story than we know at present. But for now I just want to assume his death meant what he told us it meant.<br />
<br />
Obviously his loss is a tragedy. He was a very accomplished civil rights attorney for gay and trans rights, and since retiring from that, he had become an expert municipal scale composter. He would undoubtedly have done a lot of good in the remainder of his life, had he not done this instead. But, a google news search quickly reveals that his protest suicide was covered in just about every major publication in the US, and is spreading into the rest of the English speaking world. I'm sure many of us tonight are thinking about what his example means.<br />
<br />
Here's what it means to me. I understand. Working on climate change in any form is incredibly discouraging. I accept the basic truth of Buckel's metaphor - that we are literally burning our civilization alive with fossil fuel emissions. It's slow on human timescales - the damage is already noticeable, will be much worse in a few more decades, and will be completely catastrophic inside another century if we don't reform. Even if we do reform, the damage that's already locked in is very great. But it can get so much worse.<br />
<br />
I know this intellectually. But knowing that somebody literally burnt themselves alive to draw attention to the issue has made it visceral for me in a way it wasn't before.<br />
<br />
Personally, I'm doing <i>some</i> good things to help. My home is fossil-fuel free. <a href="http://viridiusproperty.com/who-we-are.html">Viridius</a> is worthwhile, and not easy. But I could have done a lot more. And I still do a lot of things wrong too.<br />
<br />
So I resolve to try harder and do more.<br />
<br />
At the end of my life, I'd like to feel that I'd been more effective in helping the earth, staying alive, than I would have been in the local park with a can of gas and a match.Stuart Stanifordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-72455044715313665402017-12-11T06:24:00.002-08:002018-08-30T05:05:18.796-07:00US Carbon Emissions<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjDKVrnN-ASaOY7vEnxF07Iu10QsGlrlP6rBX_1YchHYFysYFyOcFFVtDa6hXbYmD2rA3QIn9LQKw28RwLCiUDSa1pH7z26S1D6pBHIde1kn15jjEgd6yTp79p_EkchGyZh1W_tjOKcOFjg/s1600/Screen+Shot+2017-12-08+at+11.17.01+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1090" data-original-width="1600" height="272" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjDKVrnN-ASaOY7vEnxF07Iu10QsGlrlP6rBX_1YchHYFysYFyOcFFVtDa6hXbYmD2rA3QIn9LQKw28RwLCiUDSa1pH7z26S1D6pBHIde1kn15jjEgd6yTp79p_EkchGyZh1W_tjOKcOFjg/s400/Screen+Shot+2017-12-08+at+11.17.01+AM.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<a name='more'></a><br />
The above shows US carbon emissions by sector, with some further breakdown by the dominant fuel types. The good news is that US carbon emissions have declined almost 15% since the peak in the mid 2000s, and still seem to be declining as of 2016, the last year of data available. The mid-2000s oil price shock appears to have had lasting and beneficial effect on US energy efficiency. It's not as much progress as we need to avoid serious climate damage, but it's something.<br />
<br />
Overlaid on each sector is a summary statistic to give a flavor of the different contributions. For example, the Census Bureau says there are about 118 million housing units in the US in 2015. Almost all of them contribute to residential carbon emissions to some degree. I have overlaid that number on the reddish residential carbon emissions.<br />
<br />
I like this graph because to me it summarizes the nature of the challenge. I believe climate change will be defeated "under the hood" and "down in the basement". Every house has a heating system that needs to become a fossil fuel free one, every commercial building likewise, every car has an engine that needs to be electric or hydrogen, not gas or diesel. It's a very concrete, tangible problem. But mostly affecting dirty looking machines in hidden places that need to be changed.<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><i>Data Sources:</i></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><i>Emissions data from EIA Nov 2017 Monthly Energy Review, Table 12. Household count from Census Bureau American Household Survey, 2015. Vehicle count from ORNL Transportation Energy Data Book, Chapter 3. Commercial building count from EIA Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey, linearly extrapolated from 2012 to 2017. Factory count from Census Bureau, Statistics of US Business, number of manufacturing establishments in 2015.</i></span>Stuart Stanifordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-53247675899033043072014-01-06T10:42:00.000-08:002014-01-06T10:42:49.780-08:00Are Winters Getting Warmer in Ithaca, NY?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjA1mIWUpMEt2JnsjKXLgEqBpxFRvHkV3RWKO5eME_K8Orfk_eoNIpaVWdmUvYceQVPAtzt45iMbnqk-3XjwxJatOjlARWr7TySBzYwfSSPbz7-mCeR-iXUvJAOTD7ZRhJYJ5IscmgtR9I3/s1600/Screen+Shot+2014-01-06+at+1.21.49+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjA1mIWUpMEt2JnsjKXLgEqBpxFRvHkV3RWKO5eME_K8Orfk_eoNIpaVWdmUvYceQVPAtzt45iMbnqk-3XjwxJatOjlARWr7TySBzYwfSSPbz7-mCeR-iXUvJAOTD7ZRhJYJ5IscmgtR9I3/s1600/Screen+Shot+2014-01-06+at+1.21.49+PM.png" height="272" width="400" /></a></div>
<a name='more'></a><br />
This is of somewhat local interest, though perhaps it's also an example that may be educational elsewhere.<br />
<br />
It's common around here to have long-time residents say that the winter weather is both warmer and more volatile than it used to be, and that this must be due to global warming. After hearing a particularly dramatic story of this ilk recently, I thought it would be interesting to look at the data.<br />
<br />
I found data for the Cornell weather station <a href="http://weather-warehouse.com/WeatherHistory/PastWeatherData_IthacaCornellUniv_Ithaca_NY_January.html">here</a> and took the average January low as my metric of winter conditions. The graph is above, with the blue line being the data, and the red line a centered moving average. I have made no corrections for heat island effects and the like - if anything the Cornell campus has grown over time which might have been expected to create a (probably very slight) warming trend. <br />
<br />
You can see immediately what people are referring to - it <i>was</i> four or five degrees colder in the seventies and eighties than recently - certainly enough to notice. However, attribution of this local change to global warming is made problematic by the fact that it was considerably <i>warmer</i> than now back in the thirties and forties. The data as a whole do not show an upward trend.<br />
<br />
Also, the degree of volatility is not obviously more pronounced than in the past. The climate here has always been very volatile year-to-year with swings of as much as fifteen degrees Fahrenheit not unknown.<br />
<br />
Conclusion: there is multi-decadal noise in local (and no doubt regional) temperature signals that means a clear global warming signal cannot be extracted from them (yet, anyway). You have to look at larger scale averages to confidently see anthropogenic climate change.<br />
<br />
And the corollary would be that you cannot be confident that the climate will warm in your particular location in the next decade or two - it probably will, but not necessarily. Don't stake your credibility on it.Stuart Stanifordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.com35tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-67020845171853299632013-12-30T05:00:00.000-08:002013-12-30T07:03:00.404-08:00Is Europe Recovering Yet?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjlUZasr_z8zTnv9FeraWWSUtnOiFO8D-Zn3uqhyhMKzvQLbWaPD6J20lVc5dovrNtHewV9xllFFanNWqZ_58hBq6tj7Lv-kf2PvTFZxUZPLf4wEqHjavrkuL2wXHXNSCHQ0g1YXO8yJouJ/s1600/Screen+Shot+2013-12-27+at+8.17.53+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" height="273" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjlUZasr_z8zTnv9FeraWWSUtnOiFO8D-Zn3uqhyhMKzvQLbWaPD6J20lVc5dovrNtHewV9xllFFanNWqZ_58hBq6tj7Lv-kf2PvTFZxUZPLf4wEqHjavrkuL2wXHXNSCHQ0g1YXO8yJouJ/s400/Screen+Shot+2013-12-27+at+8.17.53+PM.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<a name='more'></a><br />
Something that doesn't seem to have been in the news much of late is the state of the European economy. I was curious to catch up on this, so here is a short graphical summary of the latest official data (from <a href="http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/eurostat/home/">Eurostat</a>). The data in most graphs start at the beginning of 2005 or last quarter of 2004 - so they show decent growth for the first year or two, then the onset of the great recession in late 2007 and 2008, then the partial recovery of 2009/2010, which ended in a second decline in 2011.<br />
<br />
Here, first, is Europe-wide industrial production, which shows a very weak recovery in 2013, though most of the very slight gain was lost in the last couple of months of data.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi2_eD71mL4z9kxt6oQXvUFWwONxUUjwg8FlophDFlYNxQJ8Lfw5u0RBOH11JYnBBhEHU6xG7JpZR2gwCWCwE3l-eYZlj91crhiXwdvxoo6fLY-2qt_3qkxnUR6znZqjwvd76OZJBwGi-GN/s1600/Screen+Shot+2013-12-27+at+8.13.35+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="246" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi2_eD71mL4z9kxt6oQXvUFWwONxUUjwg8FlophDFlYNxQJ8Lfw5u0RBOH11JYnBBhEHU6xG7JpZR2gwCWCwE3l-eYZlj91crhiXwdvxoo6fLY-2qt_3qkxnUR6znZqjwvd76OZJBwGi-GN/s400/Screen+Shot+2013-12-27+at+8.13.35+PM.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
Retail trade has a very similar pattern:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgasUEQRv-e9h6sTMiSxNO99xGTTdkimkiuZ_bJhPv-anuAVyvxR9UBwSZvRQsollx4606qAOvOqR_8_oSuHKDOMN77_eqvXTxBZrCYoGaD6qcVi5TY0791n0CltxuBCxXNPi6KAWTq1lOp/s1600/Screen+Shot+2013-12-27+at+8.14.44+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="248" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgasUEQRv-e9h6sTMiSxNO99xGTTdkimkiuZ_bJhPv-anuAVyvxR9UBwSZvRQsollx4606qAOvOqR_8_oSuHKDOMN77_eqvXTxBZrCYoGaD6qcVi5TY0791n0CltxuBCxXNPi6KAWTq1lOp/s400/Screen+Shot+2013-12-27+at+8.14.44+PM.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
Here is real GDP growth, quarter-over-quarter, with the US for comparison:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6CZgaExFPaL4tAHAQnV8iMgVJBWhK6omxBxSs3jtNDSL4O7dH6Tt-BLW9JUxHIFcoGep4XPwzI5JkY9z_1t5J0R4ipt2uO3zIib7Iz_uQrthe27-F-PyzDwrINV66RLTFH5vMJCgOLaw5/s1600/Screen+Shot+2013-12-27+at+8.15.34+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="241" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6CZgaExFPaL4tAHAQnV8iMgVJBWhK6omxBxSs3jtNDSL4O7dH6Tt-BLW9JUxHIFcoGep4XPwzI5JkY9z_1t5J0R4ipt2uO3zIib7Iz_uQrthe27-F-PyzDwrINV66RLTFH5vMJCgOLaw5/s400/Screen+Shot+2013-12-27+at+8.15.34+PM.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
Q2 and Q3 of 2013 were the first clearly positive quarters in quite a while, but growth was still extremely weak, and in particular much weaker than in the US, which has not incurred a double-dip recession in the same way (though growth has not been exuberant there either).<br />
<br />
Next is the unemployment rate:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi505tHPYWAi5681DKVGGq_XfYS8fDxK_fYouuAAk8kD3eRLLnRPLmn3O72wD7NAmgPze3fOi0Z3SJRoFyaKmeFzKLKXWFY7FE_DCR1iHwx4dwofJBJcvD7aBLxHzQ040HthTSGG_jF5JVh/s1600/Screen+Shot+2013-12-27+at+8.17.01+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="275" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi505tHPYWAi5681DKVGGq_XfYS8fDxK_fYouuAAk8kD3eRLLnRPLmn3O72wD7NAmgPze3fOi0Z3SJRoFyaKmeFzKLKXWFY7FE_DCR1iHwx4dwofJBJcvD7aBLxHzQ040HthTSGG_jF5JVh/s400/Screen+Shot+2013-12-27+at+8.17.01+PM.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
European unemployment has stopped getting worse in 2013, but has not really started to go down on a continent-wide basis.<br />
<br />
If we look particularly at the "PIIGS" countries that were at the epicenter of the sovereign finance crisis of 2010-2012, we can see their unemployment rates as follows:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjlUZasr_z8zTnv9FeraWWSUtnOiFO8D-Zn3uqhyhMKzvQLbWaPD6J20lVc5dovrNtHewV9xllFFanNWqZ_58hBq6tj7Lv-kf2PvTFZxUZPLf4wEqHjavrkuL2wXHXNSCHQ0g1YXO8yJouJ/s1600/Screen+Shot+2013-12-27+at+8.17.53+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="273" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjlUZasr_z8zTnv9FeraWWSUtnOiFO8D-Zn3uqhyhMKzvQLbWaPD6J20lVc5dovrNtHewV9xllFFanNWqZ_58hBq6tj7Lv-kf2PvTFZxUZPLf4wEqHjavrkuL2wXHXNSCHQ0g1YXO8yJouJ/s400/Screen+Shot+2013-12-27+at+8.17.53+PM.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
Ireland and Portugal have clearly improved in 2013. Greece and Spain have stabilized (at terribly high levels) but not started to improve, and Italy continues to worsen apace.<br />
<br />
However, it's worth taking note of this <a href="http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2013/12/all_quiet_on_th.html">Jim Hamilton piece</a> pointing out that the debt of PIIGS countries is not stabilizing yet, and at least some of the countries will need to default again:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvZydp6IRPhd6d_WHrshYNHxi8I0qwgfbXgNfiA875UKpjGT7QoEEusLL_VfuBUV8LCR2WE5U-51NgiPH6XFrQSBbqy2ISPkqjNnDNP21J4YFykQkt7ZG26CPpdilq5i0VrWMsNm46sNqP/s1600/Screen+Shot+2013-12-30+at+9.59.05+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="265" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvZydp6IRPhd6d_WHrshYNHxi8I0qwgfbXgNfiA875UKpjGT7QoEEusLL_VfuBUV8LCR2WE5U-51NgiPH6XFrQSBbqy2ISPkqjNnDNP21J4YFykQkt7ZG26CPpdilq5i0VrWMsNm46sNqP/s400/Screen+Shot+2013-12-30+at+9.59.05+AM.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
Despite this, central bank guarantees are keeping sovereign interest rates moderate.<br />
<br />
Overall, it seems that the European economy has stopped getting worse in 2013, but the "recovery" is so weak and patchy as to barely justify the name. Still, there now seems little prospect of an imminent turn for the worse, and that's a considerable blessing and no doubt explains why the subject has disappeared from the news.<br />
<br />
This ongoing weakness in the European economy has material implications for the balance of global oil markets. Here is OECD European oil consumption (according to the EIA) over this period since 2005:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhS4xBduQoPaTkXFtzH6ctrgIpyZDuDdLLJtWoatoKc4aejvFxkDUilG4ty-zHAnHccOxXd68-2FoHxVGFtuAtCJNaxWg0TBt0XACXYLiW_HDjrv34U9IkWiyK7VWL7D_bX5WBFKZDSDB3-/s1600/Screen+Shot+2013-12-28+at+12.28.01+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="273" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhS4xBduQoPaTkXFtzH6ctrgIpyZDuDdLLJtWoatoKc4aejvFxkDUilG4ty-zHAnHccOxXd68-2FoHxVGFtuAtCJNaxWg0TBt0XACXYLiW_HDjrv34U9IkWiyK7VWL7D_bX5WBFKZDSDB3-/s400/Screen+Shot+2013-12-28+at+12.28.01+PM.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
This is out of about 85-91 mbd or so of global liquid fuel production during this period. If Europe had recovered strongly after the great recession, we might conjecture that consumption would be back to 15-16 mbd, instead of being 13-14 mbd. Global prices would probably be noticeably higher in consequence.Stuart Stanifordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-56088305701245982682013-12-23T10:16:00.000-08:002013-12-23T10:19:35.565-08:00Oil Supply Update<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhOEgM-LXWVpfuUVuf1YbfZzOM_7r5emWae3AxpXZ7upSlMGKH_UGz03O8jVUuyysNrMfMI0LgxCxlNVHs7EkhQiAVtwBKvloMFUoQptRsO9sD4K9H9B35WSBAh-WqDJaQDEvTX9mz5bBOs/s1600/Screen+Shot+2013-12-23+at+12.17.53+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="271" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhOEgM-LXWVpfuUVuf1YbfZzOM_7r5emWae3AxpXZ7upSlMGKH_UGz03O8jVUuyysNrMfMI0LgxCxlNVHs7EkhQiAVtwBKvloMFUoQptRsO9sD4K9H9B35WSBAh-WqDJaQDEvTX9mz5bBOs/s400/Screen+Shot+2013-12-23+at+12.17.53+PM.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<a name='more'></a><br />
So, that was a long blogging-break, no?
<br />
<br />
Sorry about that. I spent the last semester teaching a <a href="http://www.cs.cornell.edu/courses/cs5434/2013fa/">new course</a> at Cornell which sucked up all my energy. I won't be teaching next semester, so things should be easier, but I will likely be supervising some Master's projects, as well as a restoration of my barn and an addition to my house (timber-frame, strawbale as <a href="http://earlywarn.blogspot.com/2010/09/straw-bale-model-house.html">previously studied</a> and here implemented by <a href="http://tugleywood.com/">Tugleywood Timberframing</a>). So I'm going to try to ease back into blogging on a weekly schedule for now (targeting Mondays).<br />
<br />
The first few posts will probably be catching up. I started by updating my global oil supply spreadsheets. Nothing very dramatic happened in the last three months: supply continued to inch up, and prices are a little lower than during most of the last couple of years, but $100 remains an effective floor for Brent:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhOEgM-LXWVpfuUVuf1YbfZzOM_7r5emWae3AxpXZ7upSlMGKH_UGz03O8jVUuyysNrMfMI0LgxCxlNVHs7EkhQiAVtwBKvloMFUoQptRsO9sD4K9H9B35WSBAh-WqDJaQDEvTX9mz5bBOs/s1600/Screen+Shot+2013-12-23+at+12.17.53+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" height="271" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhOEgM-LXWVpfuUVuf1YbfZzOM_7r5emWae3AxpXZ7upSlMGKH_UGz03O8jVUuyysNrMfMI0LgxCxlNVHs7EkhQiAVtwBKvloMFUoQptRsO9sD4K9H9B35WSBAh-WqDJaQDEvTX9mz5bBOs/s400/Screen+Shot+2013-12-23+at+12.17.53+PM.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
(Not zero-scaled). The next picture gives close-up of the overall supply since the beginning of the great recession. Supply was flattish in 2012 and early 2013, but then managed a lift of around a million barrels/day in the second half of 2013:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9gXV6gGvX5YjfXgV2jIL09zoyyKvg_ScLMRFn2Ju8v8JChoG3bODrOT0cvMJ4wkUPg8RLmdUDdlxUvvUqX926yze12TyyV6VmGpzHoj7mq-eMJrmS0kBv1-xMNe0ovfQsEBy9E8_zfUz1/s1600/Screen+Shot+2013-12-23+at+12.18.28+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="272" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9gXV6gGvX5YjfXgV2jIL09zoyyKvg_ScLMRFn2Ju8v8JChoG3bODrOT0cvMJ4wkUPg8RLmdUDdlxUvvUqX926yze12TyyV6VmGpzHoj7mq-eMJrmS0kBv1-xMNe0ovfQsEBy9E8_zfUz1/s400/Screen+Shot+2013-12-23+at+12.18.28+PM.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
This last picture shows also (green line) the narrower definition of oil given by "Crude and Condensate", which has been flatter than the "all liquids" represented by the black line:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh5INqi6u1ZhwLCqTgID-ohUKnySBs6ld5jtLFGsWhcmKa2cBf4Qyu91LS_uUGC3KNFS71M_CzCqewN0SnmWMYVnrvOQy_2Lo8WIkBZJcmJSSCUUDEJNED7y5CmL-VpDoJvVoA27ueNNiqX/s1600/Screen+Shot+2013-12-23+at+12.23.47+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="272" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh5INqi6u1ZhwLCqTgID-ohUKnySBs6ld5jtLFGsWhcmKa2cBf4Qyu91LS_uUGC3KNFS71M_CzCqewN0SnmWMYVnrvOQy_2Lo8WIkBZJcmJSSCUUDEJNED7y5CmL-VpDoJvVoA27ueNNiqX/s400/Screen+Shot+2013-12-23+at+12.23.47+PM.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
This reflects the fact that most of the growth in "oil" supply in the last decade was not actually oil but rather biofuels and natural gas liquids (which are substitutes for oil in some applications to varying degrees).<br />
<br />
Overall, things in the oil markets are fairly stable and not threatening in the near term; increased US production from tight oil has offset declines elsewhere in the world. However, I continue to think the situation is comparatively fragile in that there is very little spare capacity in OPEC, and so a major geopolitical disruption could easily cause a big price spike. My favorite gauge of this is how far below the maximum-ever production Saudi Arabia is. That looks as follows:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgljg2fE6WEC_JFmFxAv748yp-E3iM5iZB2upgUrHKGED87t6eil9WeF5JVSNdRaG0-BSCzbg3tCxY4sIEZFAcHsSFdvPhQdd_qxkYpbleGdCphRx3TDP-eoxjHIEPYgmhpjTTXMnqAz2gK/s1600/Screen+Shot+2013-12-23+at+1.13.57+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="271" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgljg2fE6WEC_JFmFxAv748yp-E3iM5iZB2upgUrHKGED87t6eil9WeF5JVSNdRaG0-BSCzbg3tCxY4sIEZFAcHsSFdvPhQdd_qxkYpbleGdCphRx3TDP-eoxjHIEPYgmhpjTTXMnqAz2gK/s400/Screen+Shot+2013-12-23+at+1.13.57+PM.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
After a spike up to around 10mbd last summer, Saudi production is down by about 0.5mbd. So that's probably most of the world's proven short-term spare capacity there. Not very much in a 91mbd global supply.Stuart Stanifordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.com15tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-22064061573720597372013-09-27T09:14:00.000-07:002013-09-27T09:15:30.103-07:00Monthly Oil Supply Update<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhy2m73ixglWCcRa5sc8kQcUuCvYHtXZWdWHVkSfSdO1b2knts7OvSEGfmPcK9beTXUF95Fx1TLE6d2owm1RLEwJoy7yCBwpW5uv65UZscSyCppeUaT9LT5wTFcszger8KIsG6nMOQ6LD1q/s1600/Screen+Shot+2013-09-27+at+11.59.50+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="272" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhy2m73ixglWCcRa5sc8kQcUuCvYHtXZWdWHVkSfSdO1b2knts7OvSEGfmPcK9beTXUF95Fx1TLE6d2owm1RLEwJoy7yCBwpW5uv65UZscSyCppeUaT9LT5wTFcszger8KIsG6nMOQ6LD1q/s400/Screen+Shot+2013-09-27+at+11.59.50+AM.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<a name='more'></a><br />
<i>Administrative Note</i>: Apologies for the lack of blogging around here. I've been teaching a <a href="http://www.cs.cornell.edu/courses/cs5434/2013fa/index.html">new course</a> at Cornell, amongst other things, and have been incredibly busy.<br />
<br />
Anyway, here is the latest global oil supply data. After a period of flatness in 2012 and early 2013, there has been a modest uptick in supply in the summer of 2013 - to the tune of about 1mbd extra in July, though with some fallback in August. The graph above shows the major data series for total liquid fuel, along with Brent oil price on the right scale.<br />
<br />
This graph also shows the level of crude & condensate. We won't know for sure whether the July peak will also show up in the C&C level, but I would expect that it would.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRM2_ibKQNtysKsqka-iN37K1ml7vh62sixusv1Pfw62lP90SBo6-Olm_WMzdPVN_TWqbCR7pdCXVQ51FNSF-13qjTkC5qRvZZKOkUyE9csB2UeZrKqppnsDrlvkpD09q0K6P8XRHGjbaE/s1600/Screen+Shot+2013-09-27+at+12.02.26+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="271" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRM2_ibKQNtysKsqka-iN37K1ml7vh62sixusv1Pfw62lP90SBo6-Olm_WMzdPVN_TWqbCR7pdCXVQ51FNSF-13qjTkC5qRvZZKOkUyE9csB2UeZrKqppnsDrlvkpD09q0K6P8XRHGjbaE/s400/Screen+Shot+2013-09-27+at+12.02.26+PM.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
Finally, a close-up of total oil supply, just for the period since the great recession:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgv08WxN6WmdEfktpIWnmDCnw_x8pEYj2QWks3G_OdIPAvD4HVX-H544xoYU7xSQf3wH8K0Rkbe5IP-TdKVGVtl4G8x1keOJUza3V5vsbkSfjjNUkYie-T3isBgedbfj_ZKFb6z9aqwYTFZ/s1600/Screen+Shot+2013-09-27+at+12.05.03+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="272" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgv08WxN6WmdEfktpIWnmDCnw_x8pEYj2QWks3G_OdIPAvD4HVX-H544xoYU7xSQf3wH8K0Rkbe5IP-TdKVGVtl4G8x1keOJUza3V5vsbkSfjjNUkYie-T3isBgedbfj_ZKFb6z9aqwYTFZ/s400/Screen+Shot+2013-09-27+at+12.05.03+PM.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />Stuart Stanifordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-29146864743742976452013-09-05T17:22:00.000-07:002013-09-05T17:26:05.071-07:00Your tax dollars at work...<a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/interactive/2013/sep/05/sigint-nsa-collaborates-technology-companies">Unbelievable</a>:<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7xHiN9e-1Hgpwsb1oY4obG6Y_6khrtdCSoN8GbbMUDwcRj0F587G1U7zsvV3op-v5Vm3q2z7XE7D2KY2xGksZ4T3-XFKGCkMiXcT5pb3h5ko6nLVQ2EO7MT9NvBydN6ZcP-wF1gFV10nO/s1600/Screen+Shot+2013-09-05+at+8.18.04+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="295" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7xHiN9e-1Hgpwsb1oY4obG6Y_6khrtdCSoN8GbbMUDwcRj0F587G1U7zsvV3op-v5Vm3q2z7XE7D2KY2xGksZ4T3-XFKGCkMiXcT5pb3h5ko6nLVQ2EO7MT9NvBydN6ZcP-wF1gFV10nO/s400/Screen+Shot+2013-09-05+at+8.18.04+PM.png" width="400" /></a></div>
Personally, I thought the Internet was already quite insecure without the US government spending large amounts of money to deliberately make it worse.Stuart Stanifordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.com18tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-59917231222855142022013-09-01T10:06:00.000-07:002013-09-01T10:06:26.831-07:00NSA MalwareThere's a <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/us-spy-agencies-mounted-231-offensive-cyber-operations-in-2011-documents-show/2013/08/30/d090a6ae-119e-11e3-b4cb-fd7ce041d814_story.html">fascinating report</a> in the Washington Post about the dimensions of US offensive cyber-operations. Here are a few excerpts.
<br />
<blockquote>
Additionally, under an extensive effort code-named GENIE, U.S. computer specialists break into foreign networks so that they can be put under surreptitious U.S. control. Budget documents say the $652 million project has placed “covert implants,” sophisticated malware transmitted from far away, in computers, routers and firewalls on tens of thousands of machines every year, with plans to expand those numbers into the millions.<br />
<br />
The documents provided by Snowden and interviews with former U.S. officials describe a campaign of computer intrusions that is far broader and more aggressive than previously understood. The Obama administration treats all such cyber-operations as clandestine and declines to acknowledge them.</blockquote>
and
<br />
<blockquote>
The administration’s cyber-operations sometimes involve what one budget document calls “field operations” abroad, commonly with the help of CIA operatives or clandestine military forces, “to physically place hardware implants or software modifications.”<br />
<br />
Much more often, an implant is coded entirely in software by an NSA group called Tailored Access Operations (TAO). As its name suggests, TAO builds attack tools that are custom-fitted to their targets.<br />
<br />
The NSA unit’s software engineers would rather tap into networks than individual computers because there are usually many devices on each network. Tailored Access Operations has software templates to break into common brands and models of “routers, switches and firewalls from multiple product vendor lines,” according to one document describing its work.<br />
<br />
The implants that TAO creates are intended to persist through software and equipment upgrades, to copy stored data, “harvest” communications and tunnel into other connected networks. This year TAO is working on implants that “can identify select voice conversations of interest within a target network and exfiltrate select cuts,” or excerpts, according to one budget document. In some cases, a single compromised device opens the door to hundreds or thousands of others.</blockquote>
The focus on routers, switches, and firewalls is very interesting and news. To the best of my knowledge, nothing like this is known to the computer security industry. No doubt the NSA is careful to test its efforts first, to ensure they aren't detected.<br />
<br />
However, the hunt will be on now. <br />
<br />
This suggests also a new market niche doing intrusion detection on these kinds of infrastructure components. However, it's not clear that a US based firm could be a very credible provider...Stuart Stanifordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-17574310682964577562013-08-30T10:21:00.000-07:002013-08-30T10:22:01.252-07:00Friday Links<ul>
<li>Edward Snowden <a href="http://investigations.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/08/29/20234171-snowden-impersonated-nsa-officials-sources-say?lite">impersonated top level NSA officials</a> to steal documents. Fits <a href="http://earlywarn.blogspot.com/2013/06/snowden-and-toxicity-of-internet.html">my hypothesis</a> about him.</li>
<li>Indian government to <a href="http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/tech/tech-news/internet/Cyberspying-Government-may-ban-Gmail-for-official-communication/articleshow/22156529.cms">ban use of US email services</a> for official communication. There's going to be a lot more of this kind of thing, I think.</li>
<li>Kevin Drum <a href="http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2013/08/president-obamas-epically-botched-syria-policy">bashes</a> the Obama administration over Syria. My general sense is that there are no good options here. If we, collectively, do nothing, we are no doubt in for an ongoing and regular diet of headlines and youtube videos of Syrian kids being massacred with nerve gas. Being able to clear neighborhoods cheaply is pretty handy for a dictator with his back to the wall and Assad will do it again if he thinks he can. On the other hand, a limited bombing campaign is likely to be illegal, unpopular, and fairly ineffectual, particularly given the warning the Syrian government has had. On the third hand, a major involvement in the war would be very costly in lots of ways, and it's completely unclear that the end result would be a better regime. Anyone who suggests there are any simple good options here isn't thinking it through. It's fairly likely to suck regardless of what we do, just in different ways.</li>
</ul>
Stuart Stanifordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.com9tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-78039223860872590582013-08-27T21:16:00.001-07:002013-08-27T21:17:27.986-07:00What The Oil Drum Meant<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi2nwO3dVvvkGqYb9F3Unlq6Wz06skRqwApHS_AwYn9SJYLweti3vTPmk2LLqaR8_bSMEzx8Jjr1SaqxyZ3pMu60_h5i4MIJpTDD7wpWmesZMkAhA7zfDZksWY9YJnXd8VpmTQyRey5gsZB/s1600/Screen+Shot+2013-08-27+at+10.54.18+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="293" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi2nwO3dVvvkGqYb9F3Unlq6Wz06skRqwApHS_AwYn9SJYLweti3vTPmk2LLqaR8_bSMEzx8Jjr1SaqxyZ3pMu60_h5i4MIJpTDD7wpWmesZMkAhA7zfDZksWY9YJnXd8VpmTQyRey5gsZB/s400/Screen+Shot+2013-08-27+at+10.54.18+PM.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<a name='more'></a><br />
The popular peak oil blog <a href="http://www.theoildrum.com/">The Oil Drum</a> (TOD) began in early 2005. I joined as a contributor in mid 2005, later becoming an editor, and I left the site in early 2008. TOD continued in the meantime, at least up until now when the current editors have decided to transition to an archival format. They don't feel the quality and quantity of post submissions justify continuing. They asked a number of us old-timers to comment on the significance of TOD, and these are my reflections.<br />
<br />
I start with the chart above. It shows, from 1950-2012, world oil production annually (red curve, left scale), and real oil prices annually (blue curve, right scale). I show in green boxes two regions of major disruption, and between them two regions of relatively calm behavior (in white). <br />
<br />
The orderly region from 1950 to 1973 was characterized by very rapid growth in oil production that was achieved at very modest oil prices (around $20/barrel in 2011 dollars). <br />
<br />
Then in 1973 came the Arab oil embargo, followed in 1979 by the Iranian revolution and then the Iraq-Iran war. These events caused a series of sharp but relatively short-lived contractions in the global oil supply. The result was huge price increases, and a permanent change in the way the world used oil.<br />
<br />
After the dust settled in the mid eighties, oil production resumed growing fairly steadily, but never again at the frenetic pace of before the seventies - from now on society was more concerned with fuel efficiency and grew oil consumption more slowly. Prices fell into the $30 range, and remained there, give or take, for the next couple of decades. This was the second period of stability in the oil markets since WWII.<br />
<br />
Then, in late 2004, global oil production largely stopped growing and entered a rough plateau. Prices began to shoot up, reaching well over $100/barrel within a few years, and largely staying there to this day (making allowance for a sharp downward fluctuation during the great recession).<br />
<br />
There sprang up a large debate about the meaning of these events. The Oil Drum in particular I believe came to function as a central node in this debate, and one of the best places to hear a range of views that were based on a close analysis of the available data. The reason TOD is now coming to a close is that the need for this particular debate is over, at least for the time being. The data have spoken.<br />
<br />
One extreme in this debate was what came to be known as cornucopians, epitomized by Daniel Yergin of the consultancy CERA. He made a long series of predictions that oil production would resume growing and prices would fall any day now. This was most <a href="http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3487">famously satirized</a> in a graph by Glenn Morton: <br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHsM8dkO4UNZbfNCAMdji6jh_LTpK0uo5O3Q1DLR8SIdSuHYDqzgWsdL5bBSTfBAA0k61WZSds1RqEzneDez41RwyJxGpr867txm5lbaq5NlSojmH5VC6kAY8uYjMTToyVbeA6Qty48P8/s1600/Screen+shot+2012-03-02+at+8.59.43+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" height="290" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHsM8dkO4UNZbfNCAMdji6jh_LTpK0uo5O3Q1DLR8SIdSuHYDqzgWsdL5bBSTfBAA0k61WZSds1RqEzneDez41RwyJxGpr867txm5lbaq5NlSojmH5VC6kAY8uYjMTToyVbeA6Qty48P8/s400/Screen+shot+2012-03-02+at+8.59.43+AM.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
Obviously, this didn't happen. Oil production has not risen rapidly, and prices have not returned anywhere close to the pre-2004 idea of normal.<br />
<br />
Another extreme in the debate were "doomers" who believed that global oil production would begin to fall very rapidly, very soon, because peak oil was upon us. "We're all gonna die" was the logical implication. One such forecaster was TOD contributor Ace who produced a series of forecasts like <a href="http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3623">this one</a> which showed oil production beginning a precipitous decline as of the date of the forecast:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjm8fJ_8-zWPg1RUjIWFvZSYjS6jF5U_kKHMvVRVBtzSzRH7RUovcqT2rKaooSghB_42C2cH_PoPKZgYasF3St-2Qttjl9vVkq-sK0n3rmgoDAsj3WjkPL38eBsLDupSIq9xkj5LKHT-TUR/s1600/Screen+Shot+2013-08-27+at+11.29.15+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="246" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjm8fJ_8-zWPg1RUjIWFvZSYjS6jF5U_kKHMvVRVBtzSzRH7RUovcqT2rKaooSghB_42C2cH_PoPKZgYasF3St-2Qttjl9vVkq-sK0n3rmgoDAsj3WjkPL38eBsLDupSIq9xkj5LKHT-TUR/s400/Screen+Shot+2013-08-27+at+11.29.15+PM.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
The same piece forecast oil prices to rise rapidly and steadily and pass $200/barrel by the end of 2012. That didn't happen either.<br />
<br />
I'm not sure anyone predicted the last eight years perfectly (including me). Still, on the whole, the various "moderates" in the debate came closest. What has actually occurred can best be seen in <a href="http://earlywarn.blogspot.com/2013/08/monthly-oil-supply-update.html">this graph</a> which shows monthly oil production from a variety of data sources from 2002 onward:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLwUP4yC9prA1m12pRJyPmyZTZgUtOLX19WPRkE2IJAkeCTSInF_me4xtjfTXBXu1L6J0aJnO-7XirzGaUyxD3ef73kk7Z7qHP_NBSq79ZO-xBwm49cZfECYde29ycLleO-lv02XraegJb/s1600/Screen+Shot+2013-08-13+at+8.50.34+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" height="272" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLwUP4yC9prA1m12pRJyPmyZTZgUtOLX19WPRkE2IJAkeCTSInF_me4xtjfTXBXu1L6J0aJnO-7XirzGaUyxD3ef73kk7Z7qHP_NBSq79ZO-xBwm49cZfECYde29ycLleO-lv02XraegJb/s400/Screen+Shot+2013-08-13+at+8.50.34+AM.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
The green curve is the EIA's estimate of the production of "crude and condensate" - C&C - which is a fairly narrow definition of oil that largely measures liquid hydrocarbons that flow out of the ground. The other curves show various estimates of "all liquids", which adds things like biofuels and "natural gas liquids" - compounds like propane and butane removed from natural gas production. These aren't really oil, but can substitute for it to varying degrees and so are often counted with it.<br />
<br />
The crude-and-condensate curve is bumpy, but does slope upward slightly. The all liquids curve slopes up more, reflecting the fact that global natural gas production has increased steadily. High oil prices and government policies also induced a biofuel boom after 2005.<br />
<br />
Thus we seem to live in a world in which, although traditional sources of oil are declining in many places, high oil prices (around $100-$120) are able to bring out enough low quality sources of hydrocarbon to offset this decline and just a bit more. Examples include oil fracced from very tight rocks in North Dakota, and tar sands production in Canada. These sources are difficult enough to bring on line that prices have not crashed, but are sufficient to prevent global oil production from actually declining. Clearly, we have not passed peak oil yet, and it's not at all clear when we will.<br />
<br />
In the meantime, the situation has gotten quite dull. I compile graphs of oil production every month, and it's gotten somewhat akin to watching paint dry; every month, it's pretty much flat, and I tire of saying the same things over and over again.<br />
<br />
On the other hand, we certainly don't live in the pre-2004 world any more. Oil prices are high, and there seems little prospect that they will ever fall below $100/barrel for any sustained period. If for no other reason, Saudi Arabia needs an oil price somewhere around there to balance its budget, and they are always in a position to force the price to stay above that threshold by modest decreases in their production.<br />
<br />
Furthermore, the situation remains very vulnerable to disruption. Whereas in the eighties and nineties there was large amounts of spare capacity in oil production, nowadays there is little, and perhaps almost none. Any disruption in any sizeable oil producer will cause a large price spike - as we saw in 2011 when a revolution in Libya, which produced less than 2% of the world's oil, caused a sizeable price spike.<br />
<br />
As I write, Libya, Tunisia, Egypt, Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, and Iran are all subject to varying degrees of economic and political turmoil. We in the west are apparently about to bomb the Syrian government, as an interesting experiment to see what that does to the stability of the Middle East. <br />
<br />
I assume at some point a large oil producer will descend into turmoil and then there will be a large price spike, and that may kick the global oil market out of the current meta-stable state. However, there is no telling when that might happen. In the mean time, oil production slowly creeps upward, and oil prices are around $100-$120.<br />
<br />
One final point worth making: while global oil production has not peaked, oil consumption by the developed OECD countries almost certainly has. Since China, India, the Middle East, etc are all growing their production rapidly, and global supply is almost stagnant, OECD consumption must decline, and it <a href="http://earlywarn.blogspot.com/2013/05/oecd-oil-consumption.html">has been</a>:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh5bc8JqT_JMcIgtMsY1kV4aJYUm42y6hZp3GjPyCTyeSlju7MONL_CsNon4ilMa6df8BNToG_IeAvD502ksyDy77Ry0za78PGQ_5-OKqBwHiuhu0HfAqQQ1OZKGy71RIZe-Z_mUSqf-KN5/s1600/Screen+Shot+2013-05-07+at+9.36.07+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" height="273" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh5bc8JqT_JMcIgtMsY1kV4aJYUm42y6hZp3GjPyCTyeSlju7MONL_CsNon4ilMa6df8BNToG_IeAvD502ksyDy77Ry0za78PGQ_5-OKqBwHiuhu0HfAqQQ1OZKGy71RIZe-Z_mUSqf-KN5/s400/Screen+Shot+2013-05-07+at+9.36.07+AM.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
I do not expect OECD consumption of oil to surpass its 2005 peak.Stuart Stanifordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.com13tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-85495719255558140112013-08-27T19:45:00.000-07:002013-08-27T19:45:35.915-07:00Tuesday Links<ul>
<li>Libyan oil exports have <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/aug/20/libya-rebels-muslim-brotherhood-blockade">apparently plunged</a> by 70% due to unrest in that country.</li>
<li>The utility industry <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/17/us/as-worries-over-the-power-grid-rise-a-drill-will-simulate-a-knockout-blow.html?src=rechp">plans to hold large exercises</a> to simulate a big attack on the US electricity grid. Should be interesting.</li>
</ul>
Stuart Stanifordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-16845425270507187582013-08-19T08:41:00.000-07:002013-08-27T19:44:56.937-07:00Monday Links<ul>
<li>This <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/19/world/europe/britain-detains-partner-of-reporter-tied-to-leaks.html?hp">detention of Glenn Greenwald's partner</a> under British anti-terrorism laws, while flying from Germany to Brazil, is absolutely and completely outrageous. This is clearly harassment of journalists for publishing stories that authorities don't like, and strikes at the heart of freedom of speech. If you weren't already convinced that the intelligence/anti-terrorism apparatus in Western countries is out of control, I imagine this will push you a bit further in that direction.</li>
<li>Things going from <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/aug/19/egypt-hosni-mubarak-could-be-freed-sinai-police-deaths-live">bad to worse</a> in Egypt.</li>
<li>A <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-switch/wp/2013/08/18/heres-what-you-find-when-you-scan-the-entire-internet-in-an-hour/">new tool</a> for scanning the Internet in 45 minutes (with a gigabit uplink).</li>
</ul>
Stuart Stanifordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-42646065528719914302013-08-16T05:14:00.002-07:002013-08-16T05:14:49.540-07:00Friday Links<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvAOJpmmYifLf3EQG0X9oAyBgJaJBUY6XCwWfjHafKGvYtDIjHThEb74XkdV59wWs_9-8NNZHAE9O42WjRN15yVwQOwWJo1YbFhaH4OyphfuDyAN_X5STgKhpOatOoTgllHTtnH8Wp4qIj/s1600/Screen+Shot+2013-08-16+at+8.11.57+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="242" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvAOJpmmYifLf3EQG0X9oAyBgJaJBUY6XCwWfjHafKGvYtDIjHThEb74XkdV59wWs_9-8NNZHAE9O42WjRN15yVwQOwWJo1YbFhaH4OyphfuDyAN_X5STgKhpOatOoTgllHTtnH8Wp4qIj/s400/Screen+Shot+2013-08-16+at+8.11.57+AM.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<ul>
<li>The European economy grew <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/15/business/global/euro-zone-economy-grew-0-3-in-2nd-quarter-ending-recession.html?hp">very slightly</a> in Q2. The graph of European (and US) GDP is above. I think it's too soon to be certain that Europe is out of the woods, but this last data point certainly does make the graph look less dismal.</li>
<li>Parts of China have <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/16/business/global/easy-credit-dries-up-crippling-chinese-cities.html?hp">slowed down badly</a> though.</li>
<li>NSA surveillance leaks make national cyberdefense plan <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/13/us/nsa-leaks-make-plan-for-cyberdefense-unlikely.html?hp">politically infeasible</a>. In general, I'm strongly in favor of national cyberdefense, and I research/design/build network intrusion detection systems for a living. However, I have to admit that at this point I wouldn't trust the NSA with access to such systems either. This is exactly why, in a democracy, major policy changes shouldn't be pursued in secret; it's toxic when it comes out.</li>
<li><a href="http://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2013/08/restoring_trust.html">Bruce Schneier</a>: "Since the Snowden documents became public, I have been receiving e-mails from people seeking advice on whom to trust. As a security and privacy expert, I'm expected to know which companies protect their users' privacy and which encryption programs the NSA can't break. The truth is, I have no idea. No one outside the classified government world does. I tell people that they have no choice but to decide whom they trust and to then trust them as a matter of faith. It's a lousy answer, but until our government starts down the path of regaining our trust, it's the only thing we can do."</li>
</ul>
Stuart Stanifordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-65941397819554705722013-08-14T05:26:00.001-07:002013-08-14T05:27:19.424-07:00Saudi Arabian Oil Production<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEij07BYzNWywMQXpcg3vdrhwl8ZybNtBxaoTGAcK9Bs_kmzOSp9ymdA0HXsPTNwEz0OfiZfPIZH1AeLuTTdvtWlLupRYX1mQ_uuK03o4vCqRu_oz3Pj62hfqbR66v_EE7Gp5xD_1cIdA18c/s1600/Screen+Shot+2013-08-14+at+8.14.13+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="273" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEij07BYzNWywMQXpcg3vdrhwl8ZybNtBxaoTGAcK9Bs_kmzOSp9ymdA0HXsPTNwEz0OfiZfPIZH1AeLuTTdvtWlLupRYX1mQ_uuK03o4vCqRu_oz3Pj62hfqbR66v_EE7Gp5xD_1cIdA18c/s400/Screen+Shot+2013-08-14+at+8.14.13+AM.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<a name='more'></a><br />
The above graph shows Saudi production of crude and condensate (ie oil) from 1995 through July. There are several data sources, but the black line is the average. The red curve is the number of oil rigs working in the country, and is a rough proxy for the level of effort being made to maintain or increase production.<br />
<br />
In the middle of the price spike in 2005-2008, Saudi Arabia began to reduce production, rather than increasing it, and at the same time increased drilling over the very low level they had traditionally maintained. This suggested to some of us difficulty maintaining production (probably due to long-standing under-investment in developing new resources to replace aging fields). <br />
<br />
Then in late 2008, Saudi Arabia sharply reduced production in response to falling demand due to the great recession. Simultaneously, the drilling program was allowed to fall off. Then, several months after the Libyan revolution, Saudi Arabia increased production again to almost 10mbd, and began increasing rigs again, which has continued since, with some bumps along the way. However, they decreased production in late 2012 (possibly to offset US production increases), and have only partially restored that production again.<br />
<br />
It is unclear how much further Saudi Arabia could increase production - they never provide sufficient detail to verify claims as to spare capacity. The conservative view is that they can only increase to previously demonstrated levels - in this case, that is only a few hundred kbd above the present level. If that were the case, a fairly modest disruption in oil supply anywhere on the planet would be enough to trigger sharp price increases (much as the Arab Spring did).Stuart Stanifordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-1595743124685988452013-08-13T06:03:00.001-07:002013-08-13T06:04:19.191-07:00Monthly Oil Supply Update<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-eCtm3itbKbMiHtKhztu9x14-CM7nWeUaPR-bRpWJLEq5_AvGQLmL0SgVCgSd7Uyg8PRKzyCSVu9s-lyaB9z0ZAdYMldVKgcv7ON-I8fmBWboi8qVrr9iAtFBY0GMmUr_zmmO6SSWc8UZ/s1600/Screen+Shot+2013-08-13+at+8.50.20+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" height="271" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-eCtm3itbKbMiHtKhztu9x14-CM7nWeUaPR-bRpWJLEq5_AvGQLmL0SgVCgSd7Uyg8PRKzyCSVu9s-lyaB9z0ZAdYMldVKgcv7ON-I8fmBWboi8qVrr9iAtFBY0GMmUr_zmmO6SSWc8UZ/s400/Screen+Shot+2013-08-13+at+8.50.20+AM.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<a name='more'></a><br />
The IEA is reporting a new high of global liquid fuel production in July, only a little shy of 92mbd (see graph above). OPEC does not agree, and of course the figures are often revised, so we'll have to see how this shakes out. At a minimum, it gives us something to think about, global oil supply having been a deadly dull flat series for the last couple of years. Maybe it's about to increase again?<br />
<br />
The picture above only covers since 2008, and is not zero-scaled, to best show recent changes (during and since the great recession). The slightly longer term picture, since 2002, is below. That chart also includes the EIA's figures for crude and condensate (C&C), a narrower definition of oil that excludes biofuels and natural gas liquids that are debatable as to whether or not one wants to consider them in oil supply trends. Global C&C production has been almost flat since 2005 - a bumpy plateau that slopes only very slightly upward.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLwUP4yC9prA1m12pRJyPmyZTZgUtOLX19WPRkE2IJAkeCTSInF_me4xtjfTXBXu1L6J0aJnO-7XirzGaUyxD3ef73kk7Z7qHP_NBSq79ZO-xBwm49cZfECYde29ycLleO-lv02XraegJb/s1600/Screen+Shot+2013-08-13+at+8.50.34+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="272" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLwUP4yC9prA1m12pRJyPmyZTZgUtOLX19WPRkE2IJAkeCTSInF_me4xtjfTXBXu1L6J0aJnO-7XirzGaUyxD3ef73kk7Z7qHP_NBSq79ZO-xBwm49cZfECYde29ycLleO-lv02XraegJb/s400/Screen+Shot+2013-08-13+at+8.50.34+AM.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
Finally, this last picture shows the various oil production series, together with Brent oil prices (inflation adjusted, on the right scale). Prices bumped up very slightly in July. They have mostly been going down since the Arab spring, but, in my opinion, cannot go much below $100 because that will trigger Saudi/OPEC production cutbacks to support the price.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhG3T3I8jdn_g3AAoT6FxkeTmG8K08KQjZXLz693U6VcWzbyLTO0z6ZBeg3iGy54z_ASLvZifF7KRzvOP57htoPWJSGjHr9JkWY_HUQexG69XXzeRt6Y7DyAZIDUbNZSF54eqXydD7VeiDT/s1600/Screen+Shot+2013-08-13+at+8.51.19+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="272" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhG3T3I8jdn_g3AAoT6FxkeTmG8K08KQjZXLz693U6VcWzbyLTO0z6ZBeg3iGy54z_ASLvZifF7KRzvOP57htoPWJSGjHr9JkWY_HUQexG69XXzeRt6Y7DyAZIDUbNZSF54eqXydD7VeiDT/s400/Screen+Shot+2013-08-13+at+8.51.19+AM.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<br />Stuart Stanifordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-18201074057331861632013-08-05T10:49:00.000-07:002013-08-05T10:51:12.753-07:00Monday Links<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjreual9NxBxmYaB4uTSXNyzm_0wyKLMy2-1oeJarUn-Z_fUgKocNoWd3G5JCtvQxfVSp_WO4AgrX_FWxxDJHvA7X9GG4BBiJPzjzRMBFoa0AQc-USdqVYG5DOUgVw6QMvaJwJWAtFgiRa4/s1600/Screen+Shot+2013-08-05+at+1.42.20+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="273" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjreual9NxBxmYaB4uTSXNyzm_0wyKLMy2-1oeJarUn-Z_fUgKocNoWd3G5JCtvQxfVSp_WO4AgrX_FWxxDJHvA7X9GG4BBiJPzjzRMBFoa0AQc-USdqVYG5DOUgVw6QMvaJwJWAtFgiRa4/s400/Screen+Shot+2013-08-05+at+1.42.20+PM.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<ul>
<li>The above is European unemployment. Is that a slight hint of improvement, finally, there at the end? Or just noise? Too soon to tell.</li>
<li>Apparently, if you set up a decoy water treatment plant control system on the Internet, there are a lot of groups <a href="http://www.technologyreview.com/news/517786/chinese-hacking-team-caught-taking-over-decoy-water-plant/">willing and able</a> to compromise it and take over the non-existent water plant. The implication is that critical infrastructure like this has probably been extensively compromised by foreign intelligence agencies. Maybe folks should be getting a few extra plastic tanks for the basement?</li>
<li><a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/08/05/us-dea-sod-idUSBRE97409R20130805">Sounds like</a> NSA wiretaps are actually being used to initiate normal criminal cases, and agents are being trained to conceal the fact on a large scale. Great, just great. </li>
<li>European retail trade is below. Although the last month was down a little bit, the last six months in the aggregate appear to have stopped trending down.</li>
</ul>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjDV5KIPR8QxvoPWq25K5iJysyDMLBuTJ4iX_pMD7xzMQ4aipe2o4izOO2mxF753QMM1K4JRa1xqNYj4oiHCT8n2p8Bk1gaT5UNWTNUoyDyyn-AmT8RxW8mK-J5Lh81nU-4cGK6CIQZ8JEd/s1600/Screen+Shot+2013-08-05+at+1.46.38+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="250" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjDV5KIPR8QxvoPWq25K5iJysyDMLBuTJ4iX_pMD7xzMQ4aipe2o4izOO2mxF753QMM1K4JRa1xqNYj4oiHCT8n2p8Bk1gaT5UNWTNUoyDyyn-AmT8RxW8mK-J5Lh81nU-4cGK6CIQZ8JEd/s400/Screen+Shot+2013-08-05+at+1.46.38+PM.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
Stuart Stanifordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.com0