Wednesday, May 8, 2013

Short-Term Non-OECD Demand Trends

The above shows the trend for the major drivers of non-OECD demand in the last few years - China, the rest of developing Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America.  The data come from the IEA Oil Market Report, Table 1.  Adding all these together, there's something like 1.25mb/d of additional demand each year coming from these regions currently.  This can be compared to yesterday's conclusion that OECD demand has been declining at about 400kb/d/yr (substantially fueled by a deep European recession).

Thus overall, the world needs about 800kb/d of additional supply each year to keep things on their current trend.  That hasn't been happening in recent months:

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