The April numbers are out from the IEA and OPEC, and the overall pattern of flat supply since 2012 is continuing (graph above, not zero-scaled).
I refer you to last month's update for a much more detailed explanation of the context. April seems to have changed the picture so little that it doesn't make sense to repeat everything in there.
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There is an OPEC meeting coming up on May 31. Iraq and Libya are expected to ask for increases in OPEC quota which has been pegged at 30 million barrels per day since 2011. UAE and Iran are expected to be the most opposed to any quota change.
For Iraq, this would seem a logical step if Maugeri's forecast holds true.
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