Monday, June 25, 2012
Two data points are available for Iran in May: what the Iranian's themselves say (gold curve above), and "Opec secondary sources" (blue). The Iranian's themselves have been claiming lately that their production is increasing slightly on an exactly linear trajectory. The probably isn't true; everyone else claims their production has been falling quickly. The actual level of production is widely uncertain between sources. In any case, the OPEC secondary sources say production continued to fall in May.
More sanctions are coming in June. And in a world in which Brent is flirting with $90 instead of $130, it's going to be a good deal less painful for the rest of the world to impose harsher sanctions on Iran than it would have been. Iranian leverage has been greatly reduced.
Here's the comparison with Saudi production that I've been maintaining: