Wednesday, June 20, 2012
I updated my series for global trade (above - imports and exports should match but don't due to measurement error). The monthly data (through April) come from the WTO and I seasonally adjust them.
After growing from early 2009 to mid 2011, global trade appears to have roughly stagnated for most of the last 12 months. In particular, it appears to have had a bump up in February of this year, but then to have fallen back in March and April. This coincides with the movement in oil prices - which peaked around March 8th.
So, oil production has not been growing in 2012 and global trade has not been growing either. How much can the global economy have been growing?