The above graph shows the latest available data from the three agencies that publish estimates of global oil production (the EIA, the IEA, and OPEC). According to the IEA, production increased by about 270 thousand barrels/day in May. However, as you can see, we have not yet made up the loss of Libyan oil in February and March.
The gap between what has happened and continuation of the existing trend (during the recovery from the great recession) looks as follows:
The gap between the black line (average of the three agency's data) and the purple line (approx projection of what might have happened absent the Libyan revolution) is about 1.6mbd, or about 1.8% of global production - call it 2% to this level of accuracy. Note that the 1.6mbd from the graph above is in excellent agreement with the level of Libyan oil production before the revolution.
My expectation for the impact of an unexpected 2% loss of global oil production would be that it would cause a sharp rise in oil prices, followed by a slowing of the global economy, but that it would not be enough to cause an out-and-out recession by itself. My first estimate would be based on the IMF's estimate of the income elasticity of oil of about 2/3. That would lead you to expect a reduction in global growth of about 1-1.5% (1.8% * 2/3 = 1.2%). However, the damage would be worst in particularly oil dependent places like the United States.
And indeed, Catherine Rampell tells us:
We’ve had a slew of distressing economic data come in during the last few weeks. As a result, economists have been steadily downgrading their forecasts for economic growth in the second quarter. Today’s news is no exception; after a major bummer of an inflation report, Macroeconomic Advisers, the highly respected forecasting firm, lowered its annualized second quarter G.D.P. forecast to 1.9 percent.So US growth estimates have been revised downward by a couple of percentage points. That sounds in the ballpark, maybe on the high side.
For reference, when the quarter began, Macroeconomic Advisers was expecting 3.5 percent growth. And way back in February, the firm was projecting 4.4 percent.