It's been a few months since we checked in on the stats for the world's largest oil producer. The graph above shows the latest. The basic story seems to be that production has stabilized at the higher level achieved in late 2009 and early 2010 when some East Siberian fields came on line.
OPEC expects production to continue at this level or slightly down for the remainder of the year:
Russian oil supply is expected to remain within the first quarter level until the second half of the year, where production is foreseen to slightly decrease. The current high price level is supporting companies to maintain the production levels in brown fields by controlling the decline in mature producing areas. Moreover, reports are suggesting that it is likely that the export duty for the Vankor field will rise in May to a standard level, a move that the field’s operator has voiced concerns, citing that it will affect field expansion to reach targeted output.The IEA had similar expectations in the March OMR:
2010 Russian oil production averaged 10.45 mb/d, forecast to rise to an average 10.51 mb/d in 2011.So, it seems that in the key timing questions for the second oil shock, we should not be looking to Russia to make a large difference in either direction.