The IEA has released their summary of March oil supply. The key point is this:
Global oil output fell 0.7 mb/d to 88.3 mb/d in March on reduced Libyan crude supply. Non-OPEC production rose 0.2 mb/d to 53.3 mb/d, even as unrest and strikes in Yemen, Oman, Gabon and Ivory Coast shuts in an average 0.1 mb/d of crude in March and April. Non-OPEC 2010 supply is left at 52.8 mb/d, while stronger Canadian production lifts the outlook by 0.1 mb/d to 53.7 mb/d for 2011.The sharp fall in OPEC output suggests that Saudi Arabia did little or nothing to compensate for the loss of Libyan output. So, as so often, we are left to wonder what the 3.2mb/d of supposed Saudi spare capacity really means if it's nowhere to be seen whenever the world actually needs it. It's sort of the unicorn of the oil world - the horn keeps getting longer in the telling, but we've never actually seen one.
OPEC crude supply fell by 890 kb/d in March to 29.2 mb/d, on a near-70% drop in Libyan output. Effective OPEC spare capacity stands at 3.91 mb/d, with Saudi Arabia accounting for 3.2 mb/d. The ‘call on OPEC crude and stock change’ is cut by 0.4 mb/d for 1Q11 to 29.8 mb/d. The average ‘call’ for 2011 is also 29.8 mb/d, unchanged from 2010 but 0.6 mb/d above March OPEC production.
Here's a slightly longer term graph, along with the price response in March (inflation adjusted WTI on the right scale):
You can see the sharp price response to the turn down in oil supply (which was otherwise increasing quite rapidly in recent months). Also note that neither graph is zero-scaled in order to better show recent fluctuations.
OPEC is supposed to be out with their MOMR today also, but it was not available at "press time". Hopefully, I'll have some country specific graphs available later in the day, once it does come out.