Friday, March 12, 2010

Latest Global Oil Production Statistics

The IEA has put out the latest Oil Market Report this morning, and OPEC had put out their Monthly Oil Market Report a couple of days back. Both show pretty healthy jumps in total production in February.

The overall pace of recovery is 2.9mbd/yr, with a 90% confidence interval of [1.5, 4.4] mbd/yr.*

The apparent softening mentioned last month does indeed now look just like noise.

Here's the larger graph showing the history since 2002 (as well as real oil prices on the right hand side).

*Footnote for statistics nerds: the confidence interval is based on treating the three slopes from the different agencies as iid random picks from a normal distribution of possible agency estimates, and then using a t-distribution with two degrees of freedom.  Admittedly, these assumptions are speculative, but what else are you going to do?


KLR said...

STEO says 1.47 mb/d gain for 2010. Is your monitor sideways...?

Skrebowski calculated higher megaprojects figures than the wiki for ITPOES. Diffs between the two are:

2009 1458
2010 2460
2011 86
2012 1125
2013 2000
2014 2150
2015 -130

Even so he figures peak for 2014 or so. EIA says OPEC spare capacity will grow .37 mb/d next year to 5.67 mb/d total. Your demand number+Wiki megas+5.0 mb/d SC yields shortfall for 2014, too. But even major changes only move the date around a year or two.

Average YOY diff in SC for 2000-2005 was -0.66. Capacity shrank for '04, right when a huge amount of new production came online. They must be banking on peak demand, and haven't looked at the actual data, or are deliberately ignoring it.

Stuart Staniford said...

KLR - I am looking at the rate of change since May 2009, when the production recovery began - it's based on the slope of the three lines in the graph up top. It is a surprisingly high figure, but that's what the data say. It's still somewhat mysterious to me where it's going (and the global consumption data are so poor that it's been hard to get a definitive answer to that).

KLR said...

Ah, not doubting your analysis, just poking fun at the EIA, or wondering what they're smoking, or where they're going to get such lowball numbers from, or what agenda they're following.

KLR said...

I've submitted an article for TOD on demand in the US then (1977-1985) and now, comparing the two. I quote Yergin a bit at the start. In The Prize he pointed out that one thing that tripped up demand forecasts 30 years ago was the massive inventories being built up; this was something I didn't look into, but it's an important auspice I think. He's right, US inventories took off about 1974 and reached an asymptote in 81/82. As I've found to be the case with demand itself, there was a buildup in the last five years, but of much lower magnitude, just like the shallower demand destruction.

Yergin's third stage of his 80s crash trifecta was of course the massive build in supply. Which has also fallen short of the key historical precedent this time. What can we do better now than in the Reagan era? Oh yeah, economic downturns...

Peak storage in the US sans SPR? 1930. Must have been filling tanks with stock certificates...