Friday, March 12, 2010
The IEA has put out the latest Oil Market Report this morning, and OPEC had put out their Monthly Oil Market Report a couple of days back. Both show pretty healthy jumps in total production in February.
The overall pace of recovery is 2.9mbd/yr, with a 90% confidence interval of [1.5, 4.4] mbd/yr.*
The apparent softening mentioned last month does indeed now look just like noise.
Here's the larger graph showing the history since 2002 (as well as real oil prices on the right hand side).
*Footnote for statistics nerds: the confidence interval is based on treating the three slopes from the different agencies as iid random picks from a normal distribution of possible agency estimates, and then using a t-distribution with two degrees of freedom. Admittedly, these assumptions are speculative, but what else are you going to do?