Tuesday, December 13, 2011
Both the IEA and OPEC reported big jumps in total liquid fuel supply in November: the IEA by 0.9mbd to a new high of 90mbd and OPEC by 1.35mbd to a new high for them of 89.15mb. The graph above shows the short term changes since the beginning of 2008 - the average is up sharply and easily exceeding previous highs.
This picture zooms out to the 2002-2011 timeframe and adds prices:
Prices continue to drift downward overall as supply increases and uncertainty over Europe clouds the demand picture.
Two new pictures this month. Although I continue to think that total liquid fuel is the best overall indicator available at the moment (imperfect as it is), the EIA provides a helpful breakdown into individual components: "Crude plus condensate" which is hydrocarbons that come out of the ground in a liquid form, "Natural Gas Plant Liquids (NGPLS) which is hydrocarbons larger than methane removed from the natural gas stream, "Other Liquids" which includes biofuels, coal-to-liquids, gas-to-liquids, etc, and "Refinery Processing Gains" - volume gains which occur in the refinery as heavier oils are cracked to lighter fuel products.
This chart shows that breakdown with a zero scale to give a sense of the relative magnitudes (since 1995, but only through August of this year):
If we blow this up to only show the region above 60mbd, we can get a better since of recent trends:
Production of crude plus condensate has been basically flat since 2005, and the increase in that time in total liquids is largely coming from increases in NGPLs and other liquids.
Finally, here is the chart of price versus production: