Tuesday, December 13, 2011

IEA: 90mbd of Liquid Fuel in November

Both the IEA and OPEC reported big jumps in total liquid fuel supply in November: the IEA by 0.9mbd to a new high of 90mbd and OPEC by 1.35mbd to a new high for them of 89.15mb.  The graph above shows the short term changes since the beginning of 2008 - the average is up sharply and easily exceeding previous highs.

This picture zooms out to the 2002-2011 timeframe and adds prices:

Prices continue to drift downward overall as supply increases and uncertainty over Europe clouds the demand picture.

Two new pictures this month.  Although I continue to think that total liquid fuel is the best overall indicator available at the moment (imperfect as it is), the EIA provides a helpful breakdown into individual components: "Crude plus condensate" which is hydrocarbons that come out of the ground in a liquid form, "Natural Gas Plant Liquids (NGPLS) which is hydrocarbons larger than methane removed from the natural gas stream, "Other Liquids" which includes biofuels, coal-to-liquids, gas-to-liquids, etc, and "Refinery Processing Gains" - volume gains which occur in the refinery as heavier oils are cracked to lighter fuel products.

This chart shows that breakdown with a zero scale to give a sense of the relative magnitudes (since 1995, but only through August of this year):

If we blow this up to only show the region above 60mbd, we can get a better since of recent trends:

Production of crude plus condensate has been basically flat since 2005, and the increase in that time in total liquids is largely coming from increases in NGPLs and other liquids.

Finally, here is the chart of price versus production:


Mr. Sunshine said...

But, as always, the oil used to produce the ethanol isn't subtracted from the total, is it?

Kenneth D. Worth said...

Thanks Stuart for this breakdown.

It will be interesting to see how much, if any, of the jump to 90 mbpd was in C&C.

Meanwhile, Camaros continue to outsell Volts 10 to 1 :)

Stuart Staniford said...

Mr Sunshine - no, but it's a miniscule fraction of the input - the vast bulk of energy input to ethanol production is in the form of natural gas (for fertilizer and then as process heat for distillation).

Mr. Sunshine said...

Having seen the cornfields in the midwest, miniscule isn't a word that would come to my mind in farming them ... but I defer the point. On the other hand, I read last week there is a diesel shortage across the upper midwest right now due to the 2MM gallons of the stuff that's being transported to ND and pumped into the Bakken shale as fracking fluid - which means that already-refined diesel coming back out of the ground there amounts to over 30% of present Bakken "oil" production.

Alexander Ac said...

And the oil price submerged today :-)

Nick G said...

I don't think diesel is being used as a fracking fluid. I've heard of propane, but it's not widely used yet, I'm pretty sure.

Part of the diesel shortage is due to refinery problems, and part due to hoarding - there hasn't really been an actual shortage (i.e., anyone who actually stopped operations due to not enough diesel.

Camaros continue to outsell Volts 10 to 1 :)

That's a production rampup problem, not a demand problem.

John said...

Thanks Stuart. Just curious, but your average line seems off since EIA data discontinued?

Stuart Staniford said...

John: EIA isn't discontinued - they just always run a few months behind. In the region where I don't have all data sources, I construct the average by applying the average delta from the last point where I *do* have all data sources. That way the movement of the average around when I get the later data is as little as possible. Good eye though :-)