Monday, September 12, 2011

OPEC: Global Oil Supply Increased in August

OPEC's graph is above, and shows a continuing increase at a steady pace.  We are now pretty much back to the level of January (ie pre-Libya problems).

In OPEC country level details:

Saudi Arabia sustained and very slightly added to their recent increase, Libya is down to nothing, and nobody else has much in the way in the way of dramatic moves.  Kuwait, UAE, and Qatar - Gulf countries that often co-operate closely with Saudi Arabia - have been increasing production gradually but the totals don't add to anything dramatic.

I should have graphs tomorrow after the IEA figures are out too.

The situation continues to be very hard to read since so much depends on the policy response to events in Europe which is inherently difficult to predict.  At the moment Italian bonds seem to be slipping out of control again:

If the Eurozone were to truly implode then oil demand will fall and with increasing supplies prices will likely fall quite a bit - thus necessitating cutbacks in OPEC production to support them.  On the other hand, if the Eurozone political authorities are able to find some way to keep the important banks and sovereigns solvent then before too long, growing emerging market demand will again push up oil prices.

Very tough to call right now.

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