With all the excitement last week over Paul Krugman's essay, and then the volcano, I'm rather late on updating my graphs of global oil production. I've been tracking the recovery in global production on a monthly basis. The first version of March's statistics show a slight reduction over February's numbers. However, the latter were revised slightly upward. Overall, the pattern has not changed; global oil production is recovering apace:
The rate of recovery I currently estimate at 2.9 mbd/year, with a 90% confidence interval of [1.8, 3.9] mbd (using the same approach as last month). It still appears to me that the most likely outcome is that this recovery will continue and exceed the 2008 peak of liquid fuel production - I suppose the largest near-term risk to that would have to be on the demand side: a renewed financial crisis due to a Greek default.