Tuesday, August 13, 2013

Monthly Oil Supply Update

The IEA is reporting a new high of global liquid fuel production in July, only a little shy of 92mbd (see graph above).  OPEC does not agree, and of course the figures are often revised, so we'll have to see how this shakes out.  At a minimum, it gives us something to think about, global oil supply having been a deadly dull flat series for the last couple of years.  Maybe it's about to increase again?

The picture above only covers since 2008, and is not zero-scaled, to best show recent changes (during and since the great recession).  The slightly longer term picture, since 2002, is below.  That chart also includes the EIA's figures for crude and condensate (C&C), a narrower definition of oil that excludes biofuels and natural gas liquids that are debatable as to whether or not one wants to consider them in oil supply trends.  Global C&C production has been almost flat since 2005 - a bumpy plateau that slopes only very slightly upward.

Finally, this last picture shows the various oil production series, together with Brent oil prices (inflation adjusted, on the right scale).  Prices bumped up very slightly in July.  They have mostly been going down since the Arab spring, but, in my opinion, cannot go much below $100 because that will trigger Saudi/OPEC production cutbacks to support the price.

1 comment:

KLR said...

Hey Stuart,

While looking for a pic of a Hubbert curve I found this graph of Global oil production by discovery date, courtesy of XOM. Interesting approach that I haven't seen before.

Anyway, HL. In re: C+C are we closer to Campbell's scenarios now than we are to gushy 10 year old forecasts from CERA/government agencies? That'd make for some intriguing insights. I'm pretty sure of the answer already, too.