Wednesday, January 26, 2011

US Revenues and Outlays

The latest CBO projections for the US government deficit.  Note the break in the y-axis. The report came out today.


Paul Yarbles said...

How accurate have CBO projections been in the past?

Stuart Staniford said...

Paul: not very. Like most mainstream economic thinkers, they tend to miss the big turning points.

Stuart Staniford said...

I guess I should add that my expectation is that the 2011 prediction will be in the ballpark since they have a lot of visibility there. But I bet they aren't thinking about the likelihood of a big oil price shock in the 2011-2013 time frame, and the effects that will have on the country.