Being a Little Less Gloomy

I have a little bit more to say on yesterday's gloomy robotics post.  The point I wanted to add is that this will inevitably become a huge political issue.  At the moment, the consensus that innovation is always good is not seriously questioned on either side of the political spectrum, except by a relatively small fringe (though Kevin Drum - definitely not a fringe character - did link to yesterday's post in broad agreement).  But as the processes of automation and technological unemployment continue, this will inevitably change.  Obviously, we will not create 100% unemployment amongst humans without provoking a massive political backlash along the way.

The nature of the kinds of exponentials involved is such that it will appear as though change is relatively slow until suddenly robots are popping up everywhere and job loss is threatening people who matter (or at least their kids).  So at some point - perhaps in the 2020s or 2030s - this will become a red hot political issue that everyone is talking about.  Then it will be possible to campaign for reform (reform being the preferable alternative to revolution - but one that doesn't get much traction until there is a credible fear of revolution).

So the task now is mainly one of thinking - of figuring out when the moment comes, what should we be trying to do?  What kinds of cultural changes will be needed, and what kinds of changes to legal institutions can produce a reasonably enduring human society in which people aren't like something out of WALL-E?  Clearly the main changes will have to come in the way we think about and regulate the innovation process.

Global Robot Population

Automation or Offshoring? Evidence from General Motors

Hmmm

New research effort:

Last month President Obama traveled to Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh to unveil a $500 million effort to create advanced robotic technologies needed to help bring manufacturing back to the United States. But lower-cost computer-controlled mechanical arms and hands are only the first step.

So we're hoping to replace Chinese peasants with robots in factories here.  This is going to help unemployed Americans how?

Not Passing the Turing Test Yet

There's another pair of great articles in the NYT series "Smarter than You Think" exploring the state of simulation of emotion and personality in artificial intelligence.

One is Making Friends With a Robot Named Bina48, in which a New York Times interviewer basically conducted an informal Turing Test with a particular robot head.  The intelligence is not there yet:

Ten minutes into my interview with the robot known as Bina48, I longed to shut her down.

She was evasive, for one thing. When I asked what it was like being a robot, she said she wanted a playmate — but declined to elaborate.

“Are you lonely?” I pressed.

“What do you want to talk about?” she replied.

Other times, she wouldn’t let me get a word in edgewise. A simple question about her origins prompted a seemingly endless stream-of-consciousness reply. Something about robotic world domination and gardening; I couldn’t follow.

Violin Playing Robot