Wednesday, March 13, 2013

Monthly Liquid Fuel Update


Opec and the IEA are out with initial estimates of global liquid fuel supplies for February.  Nothing very exciting happened - we continue in more-or-less the same flattish pattern we've been in since the beginning of 2012.  Here is an update on all my global fuel supply graphs.  Above is average supply versus price.  Then below is supply according to three different sources (left axis), and Brent spot price (right axis):


Next shows the same supply data, together with the average of the three data-sources:



Then this focusses in on just the interval since 2008:



3 comments:

petemason said...

Thanks Stuart. Do you keep a zero'd chart with a longer time span? And when is the break down which shows actual oil production available?

Nick G said...

Back in 2008 I predicted that prices would stay in a range of $100-125 for quite a while. Saudi Arabia would reduce production if prices were to fall below $100, and consumption would fall if prices rose above around $125.

I thought I had screwed up when prices fell to $40, but that was temporary.

I think things have stabilized, and will be that way until something fundamental happens: oil production starts to fall faster than 3-4% per year, or consumption starts to fall equally fast.

jazs07 said...

@Nick sad but true, that’s how they control the oil price and that’s the reason why Saudi Arabia had been a very rich country. In their country oil price is really low as well as their energy bills.

World Oil Prices