Wednesday, January 16, 2013
I noted back in October that there seemed to be something of a pause in the huge oil-drilling boom in the US. Going back to the data again today, it appears that the rig count in the US peaked in the summer of 2012 and has actually been declining since.
Given the very high decline rates of the shale-oil plays that most of these rigs are drilling in, it seems this means that the US oil production increase will also have to slow sharply or stop in 2013/2014. Unless the rig count starts increasing again - it's not clear to me why it stopped, so it's hard to say whether or not the climb will resume.