I promised an update on my early June global trade estimate. Here it is with about half of global trade reporting. The monthly data (with partial data through June) come from the WTO and I seasonally adjust them. The fall in June is still just as strong in Imports, but has shrunk somewhat in Exports - increasing the discrepancy between the two. As usual, time and more data will tell, but it certainly doesn't appear that June was a good month.
After growing from early 2009 to mid 2011, global trade appears to have roughly stagnated for most of the last 12 months. In particular, it appears to have had a bump up in February of this year, but then to have fallen back in March and April. A small bump in May has now been, it seems, offset by a larger fall in June. This continues to suggest that the global economy is either contracting, or at best growing very slowly.
Or that the dollar is falling, or that the price of oil was low that month. Its like we are in pre- Einsteinian economics, where there has to be a fixed value, space, time, ... the dollar.
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