Friday, July 20, 2012
I updated my series for global trade (above - imports and exports should match but don't due to measurement error). The monthly data (with partial data through June) come from the WTO and I seasonally adjust them. At this point, May is a pretty solid data point but June is based on a sample of only 11 out of 70 countries, so is preliminary. However, imports and exports (which are essentially independent samples for this purpose) agree on the direction of change in June, if not the magnitude.
After growing from early 2009 to mid 2011, global trade appears to have roughly stagnated for most of the last 12 months. In particular, it appears to have had a bump up in February of this year, but then to have fallen back in March and April. A small bump in May has now been, it seems, offset by a larger fall in June. This continues to suggest that the global economy is either contracting, or at best growing very slowly.
I will try to remember to update this in a week or two once we have some more countries reporting.
Posted by Stuart Staniford at 1:23 AM