Thursday, November 10, 2011
Still not peak oil (or at least not peak liquid fuels). With the IEA and OPEC both reporting through October (and the EIA through July) it seems reasonably likely that October has pipped the pre-Libya heights of January.
On the longer time frame, this is the biggest bump on the bumpy plateau that's been going on since 2005:
My best guess going forward is that the European situation is going to worsen further and cause a global slowdown that will lead to at least 1-2 mbd drop in production (and a corresponding drop in Brent price down somewhere below $80 in order to get oil producers to cut back in line with demand). Timing is hard to call, but the pace of degradation in Europe does seem to be accelerating. The impacts on the real economy there have so far been modest but I expect that to change.