Thursday, August 11, 2011
Calculated Risk just posted the weekly unemployment claims. I note the form of the bump up this year is entirely consistent with the view that the economy's main H1 problem was a mild oil shock beginning in about Feb/March with the sudden withdrawal of Libyan oil from the global economy. Note that the slight elevation in new claims has been declining in recent weeks - just as global oil supply has been growing again. In particular the advance figure for last week was 395,000. Thus the recent stock market declines do not seem to have led to any increase in US layoffs, at least not so far.
As long as there is no new banking crisis, I don't see why the US economy is about to enter recession.