Tuesday, January 18, 2011
The IEA is now out with their December liquid fuel stats (later in the month than usual). That lets me update my graphs of oil production with all the latest stats. See above for the short term view since the beginning of 2008. As you can see, it still looks, right now, that Nov 2010 is a new high of monthly liquid fuel production. The IEA revised November up by 300 kbd (thousand barrels/day), and then showed December falling by the same amount. OPEC showed December flat over November.
Here's a slightly longer term view (since 2002) showing the whole "bumpy plateau" era (which began in late 2004). This also includes spot oil prices on the right scale (CPI corrected to Jan 2010 dollars).
The combination of flat or slightly lower production in December with higher prices has bent the price production curve back toward the envelope of the 2005-2008 oil shock:
(It's probably worth emphasizing that the pink oval above is not the result of some precise statistical algorithm, but rather is hand fitted by eye).
It will be interesting to see how prices and production evolve in January.