Monday, October 18, 2010
International Trade declined in August (according to WTO stats). Looking back at prior years (green circles), something of an August decline seems to be seasonally normal, though it also appears consistent with the pattern of generally weak growth this summer.
Historically, it appears that trade increases in September/October, presumably in anticipation of increased retail sales due to Christmas in the developed countries. It will be interesting to see how strong the pattern is this year.
Posted by Stuart Staniford at 5:55 AM