Monday, January 18, 2010
I've been a bit puzzled by the rather rapid rate at which global oil production is recovering - 3.8 ± 0.4 mbd/year - since last time I checked, US oil demand had barely started to recover at all. Where is the oil going?
As a first exploration of this, I looked at the EIA's consumption data, which currently goes through September 2009. They only have monthly data for the OECD countries. To give some orientation, here is the breakdown of consumption since the beginning of last year:
As you can see, as for global production, the low of OECD consumption was May of last year. If we look at changes since that month, for all the OECD countries and subgroupings for which the EIA has data, we get the following:
Overall, OECD demand has increased by two million barrels/day from May to September, which is certainly enough to account for the rise in global production. The bulk of this additional consumption occurred in Europe. However, the detailed pattern of consumption over time is all wrong, with almost all demand increase occurring between May and June, and then not much further rise by September, but with a big drop in August.
Anyone know what's up with that?