Saturday, December 19, 2009
Update: graph revised in line with this.
This is an updated take on a graph I used to provide regularly over at The Oil Drum. If you click on it, you can get a nice big (1.1MB) version for close study.
It shows the monthly estimates for total global liquid fuels production from the three organizations that provide free estimates - the US Energy Information Agency, the OECD International Energy Agency, and the OPEC secretariat. The numbers are the latest available in each case.
The moving averages are a 7 month centered moving average, recursed once. Note that the moving averages are not supported by the full window of data on the right hand side. I leave it there as the best available estimate at present, but be aware that the line will shift as more data comes in.
Prices are monthly averages of WTI spot price from the EIA, adjusted for inflation via the CPI-U from the BLS.
As you can see, global production is starting to recover quite well from the 2008 recession.