Chinese Railway Chief Fired

Some very interesting reporting in the NYT this morning:

In his seven years as chief of the Chinese Railways Ministry, Liu Zhijun built a commercial and political colossus that spanned continents and elevated the lowly train to a national symbol of pride and technological prowess.

His abrupt sacking by the Communist Party is casting that empire in a decidedly different light, raising doubts not only about Mr. Liu’s stewardship and the corruption that dogs China’s vast public-works projects, but also, perhaps, the safety, financial soundness and long-term viability of a rail system that has captured the world’s attention.

History of Democracy Question

Jamais Cascio seems to have suddenly returned to the blogosphere, and has a post worrying about various possible signs and indicators of decay in American democracy.  I've also been thinking a lot about democracy in light of events in the Middle East.  In particular, I have the impression that once democracy is well entrenched in a culture, it's actually very difficult to dislodge, and that US democracy will prove much more robust than Jamais worries.

Clearly, some autocratic countries become democratic briefly, and then lapse back into some form of autocracy.  The Weimar republic lasted from 1919 to 1933, for example, before Hitler effectively abrogated the constitution.  However, I can't think of any case, in the modern era, of a multi-generational democracy that has ever reverted back.  For example, Britain managed to lose an entire empire without ever any serious threat to its status as a democratic country.  Britain and the US made it through two world wars and a great depression without losing their democratic status.  Indeed the US managed to fight a civil war with itself, without either side actually giving up on the democratic form of governance.

So my question is this: what is the longest period that a country has been a democracy, and then reverted to some non-democratic form of government?  Let's confine it to the post-industrial revolution era.

Right now, the longest case I've found is Chile - if I'm understanding the history correctly, Chile was a democracy from 1932 to 1973 - 41 years - before the government was overthrown in a military coup.  Are there any cases more pronounced than that?

Do Mediterranean Crop Yields Show Climate Stress?

Climate Change Wrecks Agricultural Yields! (Not)

Deleveraging Accelerates Slightly in Q4

What We Use Crop Land For

OPEC Production

Energy and Wealth Aren't *That* Proportional

New Highs of Liquid Fuel Production in January

What did we Learn From the Saudi Cables?

All The Guardian Saudi Oil Cables

At present, I have found five Wikileaks cables that the Guardian has published which concern Saudi Arabian oil production and reserves. Here are links to each one, in chronological order, and a short excerpt to give the flavor:

Wikileaks confirms Saudi Reserve Overstatement

The Guardian has a very interesting piece for us keen Saudi watchers:

The US fears that Saudi Arabia, the world's largest crude oil exporter, may not have enough reserves to prevent oil prices escalating, confidential cables from its embassy in Riyadh show.

The cables, released by WikiLeaks, urge Washington to take seriously a warning from a senior Saudi government oil executive that the kingdom's crude oil reserves may have been overstated by as much as 300bn barrels – nearly 40%.

Emphasis mine.  Also...

Chicago in Context

Latest Saudi Arabian Oil Production Statistics

January Employment Data

Long Term Trends in Economic Output

Food Prices Up Again in January

The FAO reported this morning on their latest global food commodity price index for January, and it rose 3.4% from Dec 2010 to Jan 2011 (which was already higher than during the 2008 food price shock).

Why Oil Matters More Than Rubber

I was thinking about Paul Krugman's Cross of Rubber column, and in particular the associated blog post Commodities: This Time is Different.  My take on Krugman is that he's an extremely brilliant guy who's been thinking about economics for a good long time.  His enormous knowledge and insight are invaluable, and I pay close attention to his writing.  However, I also think he's gotten into some pretty deeply scripted habits of thinking based on past events and isn't paying close enough attention to the ways in which the present and the future are likely to be different than the past.  In particular, his frame of reference for the events of the last few years has been past deflationary episodes such as the Great Depression in the 1930s and Japan in the 1990s.

Contango, Oil Stocks, and OPEC Economic Thought

Oil Shock Potential of OPEC Nations