Wednesday, April 11, 2012

Male Employment/Population Ratio


It's been a while since we've checked in on this, my favorite employment indicator. The above graph shows the multi-decadal decline since 1970. This next one focusses in on just the last few cycles - since 1990:
As you can see, the burst in late 2011 is quite strong and makes this recovery look as reasonable as other recent recoveries.  I wouldn't set too much store in Friday's weaker report at this point - it's common for recoveries to be choppy with odd readings that go down as the overall situation improves.
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2 comments:

  1. Stephen SmithApril 11, 2012 at 7:35 AM

    However, the biggest economic recovery has been 5% when you look at the 1970-present report. Do you believe we will top out at 85-86%? We would be looking at a best case scenario where male employment prospects are as bad as they've been during the recessions since 1970.

    We've seen the importance of soccer moms etc during past elections. I think the new demographic that needs watching is the angry male.

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  2. HypnosApril 11, 2012 at 8:55 AM

    The multidecadal chart looks remarkably like the stylized representation of the "staircase" model of civilization decline so often quoted on the Oil Drum.

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