This is interesting. In the OPEC MOMR released a few days ago, they have sharply revised down the level of liquid fuel supply for the past few months (by the best part of 1mbd). That in turn has given a shape to the average production curve (above) of flattening off in recent months (after the sharp rise in the fall of 2011). It's a bit too soon to read too much into that (given that the IEA is not deigning to release their total oil supply number in the free summary lately and that the EIA is always a few months behind). Still it's interesting and certainly could help to explain the sharp upward price movement of the last couple of months:
Actually stagnant production could easily be as important as fear over war with Iran.
I will post the total liquids to crude+condensate comparison in a day or two.
I can't find the link at the moment, but I remember seeing a news article claiming that according to the IEA's most recent numbers February global production fell 200,000 mbpd due to a 500,000 mbpd drop in non-OPEC production which swamped the 300,000 mbpd OPEC increase.
ReplyDeleteIf true, that would explain the rise in the price of crude oil despite the additional output from Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states (and OPEC as a whole.)
Here is a link on the total production figure. I still can't find the original article citing non-OPEC supply as the problem.
ReplyDeletehttp://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowatchtoday/2012/03/14/iea-expect-oil-market-volatility/