The above shows global trade through June 2011. This is based on the monthly data from the WTO (and see here for more methodological detail).
It's pretty normal for trade to be flat in the second quarter after a big rise in the spring, so this data doesn't present any particular cause for concern. The circles in the graph above show the corresponding time of year in each past year. However, the data only go through June and much of the current cause for concern is the effects of the market turbulence of August and the potential for the sovereign debt situation in Europe to ripen into a full-blown banking crisis. So we shall have to wait and see what effect on the real economy those may have.
Looks a lot like the run up to 2008, but one is a very small sampling. It would be useful to see the same graph over a period that included several crashes from say 1929 on.
ReplyDeleteLook at demand for airfreight. Possible a better early indicator of global trade, given the value leverage and short lead-times.
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