The OPEC and the IEA are both out with their April numbers for total liquid fuel production. OPEC shows it slightly up, but the IEA shows it slightly down, so I guess it's flat to within the margin of error. The above shows the graph of the last couple of years (not zero-scaled to better show changes). The next graph shows a slightly longer term, also with prices on the right side (but not zero-scaled either).
Interestingly, both agencies made revisions that made the Jan-Mar fall greater. With the sharp rise in prices in April, the price production graph stayed just about in the envelope of the last oil shock:
Prices fell sharply last week, so this may change next month. However, supply will need to increase for prices not to resume their upward march.
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