I guess I should add that my expectation is that the 2011 prediction will be in the ballpark since they have a lot of visibility there. But I bet they aren't thinking about the likelihood of a big oil price shock in the 2011-2013 time frame, and the effects that will have on the country.
How accurate have CBO projections been in the past?
ReplyDeletePaul: not very. Like most mainstream economic thinkers, they tend to miss the big turning points.
ReplyDeleteI guess I should add that my expectation is that the 2011 prediction will be in the ballpark since they have a lot of visibility there. But I bet they aren't thinking about the likelihood of a big oil price shock in the 2011-2013 time frame, and the effects that will have on the country.
ReplyDelete