Most Rapidly Deteriorating Nations

It seems like the failed states data has a number of potentially interesting internal trends in, but of course it's hard to stare at five big tables and figure out much about what's happening.  Therefore, I went through the exercise of putting all the data into a single table, carefully reconciling which countries got assessed in which years (the list expanded considerably from 2005 to 2007, and then has varied slightly since then).  The fully harmonized data table is down at the bottom of this post.

Then, as a first cut at looking for interesting patterns, I computed the rate of change for each country over time, and built the above graph of the top ten countries with scores that are worsening the most over the period in which Fund for Peace has assessed them.  Obviously, some of these countries are the usual suspects that are in the news all the time.  However, the worsening trend in South Africa was not something I was really aware of.  And Niger and Guinea-Bissau haven't really caught my attention either.  Not sure why China is on there.  Again, be aware of the potential issues in this data I outlined before.

Food for further exploration in the future.

Here is the full harmonized data table:

	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009
Afghanistan	99	99.8	102.3	105.4	108.2
Albania		68.6	70.5	69.7	70
Algeria	81.2	77.8	75.9	77.8	80.6
Angola	87.3	88.3	84.9	83.8	85
Antigua and Barbuda			65.7	64.1	62.8
Argentina		40.8	41.4	41.4	44.7
Armenia		71.5	70.3	70.7	74.3
Australia		22	23.2	24.6	25.9
Austria		26.1	26	25.9	27.6
Azerbaijan	85.7	81.9	81.2	81	84.6
Bahamas			60.1	60.5	60.9
Bahrain	85.6		57	56.8	59
Bangladesh	94.3	96.3	95.9	100.3	98.1
Barbados			59.9	58.5	57.2
Belarus	87.3	84.5	85.2	84.4	82.3
Belgium		24	25.5	29	33.5
Belize			69.8	70.2	69.5
Benin		70.9	72	72.8	75.5
Bhutan	92	87.9	86.4	85.4	87.3
Bolivia		82.9	82	84.2	86.3
Bosnia	93.5	88.5	84.5	84.3	83.3
Botswana		66.9	66.4	65.9	68.8
Brazil	81	63.1	66.9	67.6	69.1
Brunei Darussalam			71.2	68.5	68.1
Bulgaria		62.1	60.3	58.5	61.5
Burkina Faso		89.7	89.7	89.9	91.3
Burma	93.4	96.5	97	100.3	101.5
Burundi	94.3	96.7	95.2	94.1	95.7
Cambodia		85	85.7	85.8	87.3
Cameroon	84.6	88.4	89.4	91.2	95.3
Canada		23.1	25.1	26.3	27.7
Cape Verde			81.1	80.7	78.5
Central African Republic	93.7	97.5	101	103.7	105.4
Chad	100.9	105.9	108.8	110.9	112.2
Chile		32	33.8	36.3	37.5
China	72.3	82.5	81.2	80.3	84.6
Colombia	95	91.8	89.7	89	89.2
Comoros			77.8	79.6	86.3
Costa Rica		49.6	50.5	50.9	52.5
Croatia	106	109.2	107.3	104.6
Croatia		61.9	60.5	59.4	60.1
Cuba	83.7	81.9	78.6	78.6	80.6
Cyprus		70.5	70.2	69.7	68.9
Czech Republic		41.8	42.1	42.1	42.6
Dem. Rep. of the Congo	105.3	110.1	105.5	106.7	108.7
Denmark		24.8	22.2	21.5	23.2
Djibouti			80.3	80	80.6
Dominican Republic	94.2	85	80.6	78.4	77.7
East Timor					97.2
Ecuador	87	81.2	79.9	80.3	81.2
Egypt	88.8	89.5	89.2	88.7	89
El Salvador	75.5	76.1	74.9	75.5	77.2
Equatorial Guinea	90.9	84	88.2	88	88.3
Eritrea	84.1	83.9	85.5	87.4	90.3
Estonia		51	50.5	51	51.2
Ethiopia	91.1	91.9	95.3	96.1	98.9
Fiji			75.7	76.6	78.8
Finland		18.2	18.5	18.4	19.2
France		34.3	34.1	34.8	35.3
Gabon		73.6	73.3	75	74.4
Gambia	82.4	74	76	76.9	79
Georgia		82.2	82.3	83.8	91.8
Germany		39.7	38.4	37.3	36.2
Ghana		60.5	61.9	64.6	66.2
Greece		41.1	43.5	45.4	46.1
Grenada			71.6	69	67.9
Guatemala	91	84.3	81.4	80.6	80.6
Guinea	94.7	99	101.3	101.8	104.6
Guinea-Bissau		85.4	88.8	91.3	94.8
Guyana			73.3	72.2	73
Haiti	99.2	104.6	100.9	99.3	101.8
Honduras	87.6	76.7	74.8	74.9	77.2
Hungary		46.7	51.2	50.9	50.7
Iceland			21.1	20.9	29
India	69.5	70.4	70.8	72.9	77.8
Indonesia	87	89.2	84.4	83.3	84.1
Iran	83.8	84	82.8	85.7	90
Iraq	103.2	109	111.4	110.6	108.6
Ireland		18.6	19.5	19.9	21.6
Israel/West Bank		79.4	79.6	83.6	84.6
Italy		35.1	37.1	39.9	43.9
Ivory Coast					102.5
Jamaica		66.8	65.1	65.7	68.6
Japan		28	28.5	29.7	31.2
Jordan		77	76.6	77.3	77.9
Kazakhstan	78.3	71.9	72.3	72.4	72.5
Kenya	92.7	88.6	91.3	93.4	101.4
Kuwait		60.8	62.1	62	63.4
Kyrgyzstan	80.4	90.3	88.2	88.8	89.1
Laos	91.5	87.9	87.2	88.7	89
Latvia		56.2	56.7	54.5	54.6
Lebanon	88.9	80.5	92.4	95.7	93.5
Lesotho			81.2	81.7	81.8
Liberia	99.5	99	92.9	91	91.8
Libya	80.7	68.5	69.3	70	69.4
Lithuania		49.7	49	48.7	48
Luxembourg			28.1	27.9	27.6
Macedonia		75.1	74.1	74.6	74.4
Madagascar			76.5	76.7	81.6
Malawi		89.8	92.2	92.9	93.8
Malaysia	73.6	66.1	65.9	67.2	68.9
Maldives			81.1	80.4	78.8
Mali		74.6	75.5	75.6	78.7
Malta			48.5	48.3	48.8
Mauritania		87.8	86.7	86.1	88.7
Mauritius		41.9	42.7	42.4	44.7
Mexico	74.6	73.1	72.6	72.2	75.4
Micronesia			73.5	74	71.9
Moldova		82.5	85.7	85.7	85.1
Mongolia		58.4	58.4	57.8	61.9
Montenegro			55.6	55.8	58
Morocco	78.9	76.5	76	75.8	77.1
Mozambique	87.5	74.8	76.9	76.8	80.7
Namibia		70.7	71.3	72.9	75.6
Nepal	89	95.4	93.6	94.2	95.4
Netherlands		28.1	28.6	27.3	27
New Zealand		19.4	20.5	21.4	23.3
Nicaragua		82.4	80	81.7	82.6
Niger		87	91.2	94.5	96.5
Nigeria	84.3	94.4	95.6	95.7	99.8
North Korea	95.7	97.3	97.7	97.7	98.3
Norway		16.8	17.1	16.8	18.3
Oman		43.8	45.5	47.4	47.2
Pakistan	89.4	103.1	100.1	103.8	104.1
Panama		59.6	59.4	58.6	59.7
Papua New Guinea		84.6	85.1	84.6	84.1
Paraguay	88.9	72	72.9	72.3	72
Peru	88.1	79.2	76.4	77.5	77.1
Philippines	83.9	79.2	83.2	83.4	85.8
Poland		47.9	47.6	47.6	49.6
Portugal		32.7	32.4	31.8	32.7
Qatar			53.6	52.7	51.9
Republic of Congo			93	93.4	93.1
Romania		62.6	60.9	59.9	61.3
Russia	83.5	87.1	81.2	79.7	80.8
Rwanda	96.5	92.9	89.2	88	89
Samoa			73.8	72.4	71.4
Sao Tome			78.6	78.3	76.7
Saudi Arabia	87.1	77.2	76.5	76.9	77.5
Senegal		66.1	66.9	70.9	74.2
Serbia	80	83.8	81.1	80.1	79.2
Seychelles			71.3	69.5	67.7
Sierra Leone	102.1	96.6	93.4	92.3	92.1
Singapore		30.8	33	33.3	33.8
Slovakia		49.9	49.3	48.8	48.6
Slovenia		36.8	37.5	37.1	36.3
Solomon Islands			92	92.4	89.6
Somalia	102.3	105.9	111.1	114.2	114.7
South Africa		55.7	57.4	62.7	67.4
South Korea		39.9	39.7	40.6	41.6
Spain		37.4	39.2	41.6	43.3
Sri Lanka		92.4	93.1	95.6	96.7
Sudan	104.1	112.3	113.7	113	112.4
Suriname			73.9	72.4	73.2
Swaziland			81.3	80	82.4
Sweden		18.2	19.3	19.8	20.6
Switzerland		18.7	20.2	20.3	21.2
Syria	91.5	88.6	88.6	90.1	89.8
Tajikistan	86.7	87.7	88.7	88.9	90.3
Tanzania	91	78.3	79.3	79.1	81.1
Thailand	77.4	74.9	76	75.6	79.2
Timor-Leste			94.9	93.8
Togo	80.4	88.3	86.6	86.8	87.2
Trinidad			67.6	67	66.7
Tunisia	76.3	65.4	65.6	65.6	67.6
Turkey	86.1	74.4	74.9	75.4	78.2
Turkmenistan	76.5	86.1	87.5	86.2	84.3
Uganda	91.7	94.5	96.4	96.1	96.9
Ukraine	88.8	72.9	71.4	70.8	69.7
United Arab Emirates			51.6	51.2	51.8
United Kingdom		34.2	34.1	32.9	33.6
United States		34.5	33.6	32.8	34
Uruguay		41.2	40.9	41.4	41.2
Uzbekistan	93.2	94.4	93.5	93.4	92.8
Venezuela	93.5	81.2	79.8	77.9	79.5
Vietnam	84.9	78.6	77.8	74.6	76.9
Yemen	99.7	96.6	93.2	95.4	98.1
Zambia		79.6	80.6	81.6	84.2
Zimbabwe	94.9	108.9	110.1	112.5	114