tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post975831359689546453..comments2024-02-23T01:30:06.101-08:00Comments on Early Warning: Global Trade Has Recovered From the Great RecessionStuart Stanifordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-73271412582515877612011-05-23T13:36:55.638-07:002011-05-23T13:36:55.638-07:00Stuart, You might be interested in the World Trade...Stuart, You might be interested in the World Trade Monitor from the Netherlands Bureau of Economic Policy Analysis. It is goods-only, but seasonally- and inflation-adjusted, and widely used. <br /><br />About the WTO series, NBEPA says, "The WTO series are quite different from the series from the CPB, OECD MEI, OECD EO and IMF WEO (see Figure 3.6, Table 3.5 and Annex Table A.1). Main reason is probably the use of unit value series instead of proper price series."<br /><br />There is a graph on my site.<br /><br />http://www.clearonmoney.com/dw/doku.php?id=public:world_trade_monitor_nbepa<br /><br />http://www.cpb.nl/en/world-trade-monitorJameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17012948996720356739noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-4990782842047342922011-05-23T11:32:15.179-07:002011-05-23T11:32:15.179-07:00Stuart,
The most interesting proposition I've...Stuart,<br /><br />The most interesting proposition I've heard lately is that China is in a massive capex bubble which must burst at some point, though the timing is murky.<br /><br />The argument is that China's economy is badly unbalanced, with capex equal to 50%+ of the economy (and rising - another sign of instability). <br /><br />The commodity consumption and price surge is due mostly to China, so a burst China bubble would deflate the commodity price peak. It would also hurt the rest of the world economy, including international trade (bringing us back to your post).<br /><br />What do you think?Nick Ghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12721405349726668110noreply@blogger.com