tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post9116504253650902621..comments2024-02-23T01:30:06.101-08:00Comments on Early Warning: US Household Deleveraging Slows in Q1Stuart Stanifordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-86459223603472721092011-05-10T00:29:52.613-07:002011-05-10T00:29:52.613-07:00It there really a difference between deleveraging ...It there really a difference between deleveraging and bancrupting? See this WSJ analysis:<br /><br /><a href="http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2010/09/18/number-of-the-week-defaults-account-for-most-of-pared-down-debt/" rel="nofollow">Defaults Account for Most of Pared Down Debt</a>Alexander Achttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16845172528191878930noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-5410933541662725852011-05-09T21:21:23.535-07:002011-05-09T21:21:23.535-07:00I think I meant Line 18 at the bottom, Old Age Ben...I think I meant Line 18 at the bottom, Old Age Benefits and Health.<br /><br />I'm also curious which line Medicaid is under.<br /><br />Likewise for government contractors; are they under government or private? That might skew the numbers a bit since it's pretty obvious that contracting is taking huge hold in Virginia (around DC).bordoehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03691227782664341810noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-14856795629003422832011-05-09T20:36:39.052-07:002011-05-09T20:36:39.052-07:00Well. A cacophony then.
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The government alread...Well. A cacophony then.<br /><br />--<br /><br />The government already has Line 35, income without transfer payments.<br /><br />That peaked out in 2007, and looks like that's an inflation index number, so might want to adjust that out a bit more.<br /><br />--<br /><br />Unemployment insurance number (Line 19) looks freakishly high; you may want to consider adjusting that, but certainly explains why many states are looking to cut down on benefits!<br /><br />--<br /><br />Just look at Line 19 on its own and tell me THAT looks sustainable. Maybe if it was a tiny portion of the economy. But what happens when it's not?bordoehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03691227782664341810noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-78820646603587576472011-05-09T19:15:31.235-07:002011-05-09T19:15:31.235-07:00Ticking hurricanes - my metaphor processor is thro...Ticking hurricanes - my metaphor processor is throwing exceptions :-)Stuart Stanifordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-87103610489059701482011-05-09T18:53:35.646-07:002011-05-09T18:53:35.646-07:00Stuart> However, I like to look at the debt div...Stuart> However, I like to look at the debt divided by disposable personal income, and in those terms, the decline continued, albeit at a slower pace:<br /><br />--<br /><br />Yes; as percent of personal income.<br /><br />But break out personal income into wages vs. benefits vs. government benefits; you'll see a trend towards the latter two growing rather more briskly (and non stop) compared to the first.<br /><br />This isnt a sustainable trend as we get more and more Boomer's onto the Social Security and Medicare systems, and as the time to change the programs (in a way that wont cause horrific pain) closes simply as the population that's already here, ages.<br /><br />And as the oil clock, and the debt clock (of every government in the world) keeps on ticking away.<br /><br />Hear it now?<br /><br />Louder than ever. <br /><br />Soon to be a hurricane.bordoehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03691227782664341810noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-41570172011980563142011-05-09T09:14:31.605-07:002011-05-09T09:14:31.605-07:00"I like to look at the debt divided by dispos..."I like to look at the debt divided by disposable personal income..."<br /><br />I like to look at debt divided by the quantity of money. It gives a feel for monetary imbalance and the factor-cost of money.The Arthurianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16501331051089400601noreply@blogger.com