tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post8965090092162621152..comments2024-02-23T01:30:06.101-08:00Comments on Early Warning: August European UnemploymentStuart Stanifordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-32030541511673247522011-10-01T18:00:18.650-07:002011-10-01T18:00:18.650-07:00Stuart,
Have you read "This Time is Differen...Stuart,<br /><br />Have you read "This Time is Different - 8 centuries of Financial Folly" yet?<br /><br />Greece seems to have defaulted regularly about every 25 years over the last 2 centuries.<br /><br />The book seems to suggest that sovereign defaults are not nearly as rare or calamitous as everyone is assuming.Nick Ghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12721405349726668110noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-57456651905657753842011-09-30T19:10:31.903-07:002011-09-30T19:10:31.903-07:00"Adequate action" to address this proble..."Adequate action" to address this problem means solvent governments will be buying bad debt. This makes sense in a context where growth can resume. In an context where oil prevents meaningful growth for the OECD, addressing the problem is a form of turning private errors into public debt, and re-inforcing further high-risk investment by major institutions. Can Germany swallow the debt of all the PIGS?<br /><br />Letting institutions fail means panic - no government wants to wear that legacy.<br /><br />The answer: serious haircuts for lenders and "managed care" for the prolifigate spenders. This sets expectations lower, hopefully to a level compatible to what the available oil supplies will permit.<br /><br />Ugly, but...ColdNorthhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13140379108815093606noreply@blogger.com