tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post7979052798524821087..comments2024-02-23T01:30:06.101-08:00Comments on Early Warning: Saudi Oil Production DecliningStuart Stanifordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-67633541585385049342011-11-16T06:52:36.514-08:002011-11-16T06:52:36.514-08:00Meanwhile, the Brent WTI spread has been cut by ov...Meanwhile, the Brent WTI spread has been cut by over half in just a couple of weeks. WTI over a hundred with the spread circa $9 today...Donhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04998336790408278060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-72591214847143757412011-11-15T16:42:16.351-08:002011-11-15T16:42:16.351-08:00Big deal, so the world is running out of primary e...Big deal, so the world is running out of primary energy (plus primary chemical feedstock.) It's not like there's anything going wrong; the economy is just smoothly humming along and everybody is happy.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-76202255877608839332011-11-15T16:16:55.621-08:002011-11-15T16:16:55.621-08:00My biggest problem right now is that tech on saudi...My biggest problem right now is that tech on saudi oil rigging is just off the chart.<br /><br />And the results are poorer by the day. I still remember, upon arriving at Jubail, that it was very rare to have discrepancies in 3d-surveyed fields output. But now its just a norm, and this in a mere 5 years.noiseformindhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18280572297671101309noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-10767990874002315992011-11-15T11:23:31.422-08:002011-11-15T11:23:31.422-08:00We also do not know how much of that Saudi June in...We also do not know how much of that Saudi June increase came out of their storage depots and how much came from producing wells.<br /><br />As Non-OPEC supply continues to have difficulties in meeting increasing demand, more stress will be applied to OPEC to increase theirs. WE may find out their capability by 2013. For 2011, Non-Opec supply only increased by 100 kb/d, according to the IEAAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08473545026240354773noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-64103136622109439042011-11-15T09:49:19.121-08:002011-11-15T09:49:19.121-08:00Well, since the post-mid-08 decline was clearly vo...Well, since the post-mid-08 decline was clearly voluntary, it was reasonable to assume that the Saudis could get back to the 9.6 mbpd level which they did. If they hold firm here, then we are probably in for the second oil price shock.<br /><br />I'm not sure Europe has much relevance. I mean if the periphery defaults the core nation banks will get bailed out. Everyone knows that; the question is how much will the periphery do to pay the debt themselves and will they get kicked out or leave the EU if they don't do enough. That's essentially a question of who pays, right?<br /><br />There is no fear of total collapse of the system like in 08, or the collapse of a major industry (home construction and mortgage finance); so maybe we get a mild recession which cuts a few hundred thousand barrels a day in demand? Meanwhile, China builds 1.7 million cars and trucks a month.<br /><br />So, the developing world needs another 2 mbpd this year and where will it come from? It took six million people losing their jobs in the US to free up that much oil last time around. Hence, it took a oil price shock, a financial collapse and real fear in the markets. It just doesn't seem like we are there yet.Kenneth D. Worthhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01273763648198044270noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-83336481063333720922011-11-15T09:27:45.381-08:002011-11-15T09:27:45.381-08:00On the whole, the Saudis would be wise to keep the...On the whole, the Saudis would be wise to keep their wealth in the ground, rather than selling it for cheap and buying US bonds with the proceeds.<br /><br />On another note, I found <a href="http://www.newyorker.com/talk/financial/2011/11/14/111114ta_talk_surowiecki" rel="nofollow">Surowiecki's analysis </a>of deleveraging quite persuasive. Jobs and income are the bigger drivers.Burkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11158223475895530397noreply@blogger.com