tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post4998292193828672742..comments2024-02-23T01:30:06.101-08:00Comments on Early Warning: Tuesday LinksStuart Stanifordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-47606334225199246822013-05-15T17:59:10.155-07:002013-05-15T17:59:10.155-07:00Regarding the advance of AI; as I've noted bef...Regarding the advance of AI; as I've noted before, there seems no reason that the evolution of robots will not be marked by the same sorts of struggles for dominance and share of the energy and materials pie that has marked all of evolution. The idea that the advance of AI to the point where robots are automatous will result in some grand, cooperative, all-encompassing system seems highly unlikely. Instead, specific robots and AI systems seem likely to behave like different species. It could be robot vs. robot for millenia until cooperative, interdependent relationships evolve for, more or less, mutual benefit. Humans will continue to be players in this ecosystem, perhaps in ways we cannot imagine. Mike Aucotthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05692592170835103639noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-44859288499704389802013-05-14T15:21:04.119-07:002013-05-14T15:21:04.119-07:00Stuart
As regards Abenomics, the yen is really a ...Stuart<br /><br />As regards Abenomics, the yen is really a side show. The BOJ could have targeted the exchange rate directly with a currency intervention if this was at the core of their theoretical understanding of the problem. <br /><br />The absolutely critical thing to understand is that Abe and Kuroda believe that they are tackling a demand-side liquidity trap, not a supply side problem. Hugh captures this point well. <br /><br />Kuroda's policies are built around the belief that there exists a large output gap that can be closed by creating the perception of negative interest rates into the future. This is pure Krugman 1998 and Eggertsson/Woodford 2004 (the bedrock of Ben Bernanke's unconventional monetary policy). <br /><br />Like Hugh, I believe that this analysis is incorrect. The problem is a combination of structural supply-side constraints on growth (demographics, slowing technology-led productivity, energy costs) and structural demand-side constraints (impact of technology on median wages). <br /><br />To target the wrong supply- and demand-side problem via pumping up asset prices and depreciating the yen is a recipe for trouble. I've blogged about this in depth here:<br /><br />http://therationalpessimist.com/2013/05/13/the-absurdity-of-abenomics-and-the-pms-three-bendy-arrows-part-4-bubble-economics/<br /><br />The Rational Pessimisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15839671809950298150noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-85145971090141769622013-05-14T14:30:27.756-07:002013-05-14T14:30:27.756-07:00Many thanks for the Bertrand Russell link.
It ou...Many thanks for the Bertrand Russell link. <br /><br />It ought to be taught in schools, but it won't be for the reasons the author himself spells out. petemasonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17656658244668462017noreply@blogger.com