tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post4996757540032732826..comments2024-02-23T01:30:06.101-08:00Comments on Early Warning: Gross World Product Will Not Grow at 4%+ for Five YearsStuart Stanifordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-82662077244936329852011-05-02T06:36:19.610-07:002011-05-02T06:36:19.610-07:00So the other IMF story of last week, that China wi...So the other IMF story of last week, that China will over take the US in Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) GDP in 2016 via growth can't happen.<br /><br />The real question is, will it happen because the higher oil prices collapse US GDP because America can't/won't adapt fast enough.Gnoll110https://www.blogger.com/profile/12211684978471224190noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-4451436431346837742011-04-27T15:13:42.327-07:002011-04-27T15:13:42.327-07:00Stuart,
First - this analysis used short-term ela...Stuart,<br /><br />First - this analysis used short-term elasticities, but if you're talking about a long-term/secular rising trend, you have to use long-term elasticities. That's the whole point of the distinction between the two.<br /><br />2nd, you can't use elasticities developed in the low price range of the price curve for the high price range: they will be very different.<br /><br />In fact, this is strongly non-linear. Above about $80, investment grows in alternatives, especially batteries. As both R&D and manufacturing volumes increase, innovation and economies of scale are creating disruptive competitors whose costs will reasonably soon start to fall well below the old oil-based price norms - at that point oil consumption will continue to fall even if oil prices start falling.<br /><br />At that point, oil exporters will be in deep trouble, and wish they had saved as many of those T-bills as they could....Nick Ghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12721405349726668110noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-64989509719936829722011-04-26T15:15:53.864-07:002011-04-26T15:15:53.864-07:00I think it was J. K. Galbraith who said that these...I think it was J. K. Galbraith who said that these forecasts are best treated as ritual utterances by the high priests. <br /><br />Having four significant figures on their forecasts is a sign of a cult pronouncement. If they were honest, or scientific, instead of 4.513%, they'd write "About four-ish. Give or take. Maybe a bit less. If we're very lucky, could be more." <br /><br />These forecasts are merely intended to reassure the people that their leaders have a clue. They're always wrong but that never matters for the prestige of he forecasters.<br /><br />Off topic, I don't know if you can fit it in to your reading, but <a href="http://econpapers.repec.org/paper/acbcamaaa/2011-01.htm" rel="nofollow">Stern & Kander</a> looks like a serious attempt to reconcile mainstream growth theory with energy constraints. It's a better fit with the mainstream than are Ayres and Warr or the ecological economists. The best I've seen to date.Greghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11939046017258198038noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-89396022022697745782011-04-26T12:19:08.827-07:002011-04-26T12:19:08.827-07:00I laughed out loud at the price projection; then w...I laughed out loud at the price projection; then wondered that I was laughing. Been hanging out at this here gallows for too long!<br /><br />I want what they're smoking, and lots of it. BP data shows that only in the 60s/early 70s did 5 year blocks of YOY supply growth exceed 10 mb/d, peaking at 18 mb/d 1969-1974. You know, back when geologists would throw rocks and discover onshore giant fields in the process, and crude had hovered at $2/bbl for over 20 years. <br /><br />Time to go long on Zipcar, Trek bikes, others? <br /><br />Brian NextBigThing seems very gung ho on lsc from shales, eg Bakken. Says there are numerous basins to be tapped worldwide, that TOD forecasts woefully ignored the prospects to be had, yada yada. ND has brought on maybe the equivalent of a good sized offshore field in the last few years so I'm still yawning.KLRhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00691172491186270514noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-69489393031929685962011-04-26T11:36:49.118-07:002011-04-26T11:36:49.118-07:00Stuart:
It is amazing that financial markets can&...Stuart:<br /><br />It is amazing that financial markets can't see this growth restraint looming. <br /><br />Jeremy Grantham appears one of the few financial managers to get the scale of the problem. Infectious Greed and others carrying Grantham's latest letter, which covers what he terms the 'Great Paradigm Shift' in resources and it is well worth a read. <br /><br />http://www.scribd.com/doc/53865070/GMO-AprilThe Rational Pessimisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15839671809950298150noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-66838162715003480922011-04-26T09:04:14.006-07:002011-04-26T09:04:14.006-07:00Stuart,
Not on this topic, but I think you might ...Stuart,<br /><br />Not on this topic, but I think you might find this interesting.<br /><br />In regards to this post of yours<br /><br />http://earlywarn.blogspot.com/2010/10/terrifying-drought-projections.html<br /><br />and this post today<br /><br />http://climateprogress.org/2011/04/26/news-climate-change-worsens-western-water-woes-gas-prices-slam-mobility-and-obamas-popularity-too/#more-47613<br /><br />There seems to be one of those "Both of these projections cannot come true" aspects. I would be interested in what you have to say.<br /><br />WyomingWyominghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16254159224741389430noreply@blogger.com