tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post4194102744965755237..comments2024-02-23T01:30:06.101-08:00Comments on Early Warning: Deutsche Bank: $125 oil spike in 2012Stuart Stanifordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-67175010431217477752011-01-08T17:02:29.759-08:002011-01-08T17:02:29.759-08:00Once again, Stuart, I think you are spot on. Ther...Once again, Stuart, I think you are spot on. There is no guarantee that OPEC can produce at the 2008 levels again, especially after three years. And there simply was not any good reason for holding anything back when oil was at $148.<br /><br />It will surely take something more than $125 oil to cause a major economic contraction such as that we saw in 2008. Oil price shocks can have an effect at lower levels as a percentage of GDP. Several recessions (1990, 2000) seem to have been caused by a doubling of the oil price from much lower levels. <br /><br />We also will be lacking the economic effects of a banking crisis and real estate construction collapse, which exacerbated the downturn in '08. <br /><br />It is equally plausible to postulate a slow strangulation of the developed economies by $150 oil that stays elevated after perhaps a spike to $175.Kenneth D. Worthhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01273763648198044270noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-28529866006082897162011-01-01T19:53:08.944-08:002011-01-01T19:53:08.944-08:00If opec has no oil to sell, it has lost it's c...If opec has no oil to sell, it has lost it's capacity to import. What does this imply for their society, and the importing countries? I don't hear this discussed.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-47350703672886430802010-12-30T12:28:14.260-08:002010-12-30T12:28:14.260-08:001.5 mb/d is what the EIA gives for 2008 OPEC spare...1.5 mb/d is what the EIA gives for 2008 OPEC spare capacity in its <a href="http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html" rel="nofollow">Short-Term Energy Outlook</a>. Current figure they give is 4.73 mb/d, close to DB's. True shut-in capacity for OPEC from July '08-Aug '10 is 1470.14, KSA accounts for 1160 kb/d of that. Then you have putative new output from projects like Hawiyah/AFK/Khurais, which have nameplate capacity of 310/500/1200 kb/d respectively. Of course these couldn't be utilized in 2008, they weren't online yet, or were barely so. The 1st two mentioned would've accounted for 610 kb/d in 2008.KLRhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00691172491186270514noreply@blogger.com