tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post4070275382257918374..comments2024-02-23T01:30:06.101-08:00Comments on Early Warning: IEA Acknowledges Peak OilStuart Stanifordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-31635132810049783292010-11-11T19:45:46.182-08:002010-11-11T19:45:46.182-08:00That "World Oil production by type" grap...That "World Oil production by type" graph looks like a total crock to me.<br /><br />1. From currently known but undeveloped fields, between 2009 (0 mbd) and 2035 (46 mbd) this graph shows approx 230 billion barrels being produced. Maximum production from such fields is no earlier than 2035 as it is still increasing to that year, so you'd have to postulate that at least that much production is still to be gotten, ie at least 460 billion barrels total. <br />Does anyone know if, right now, there are 460 bbl of reserves in known but undeveloped fields?<br /><br />2. Production from yet to be discovered fields starts in about 5 years time, and grows steadily to be about 22 mbd by 2035, for a cumulative production around 85 bbl. Again, production in that category has not peaked by 2035 implying reserves of at least 170 bbl discovered between 2010 and 2030. <br />Does anyone have historical figures for reserve discovery rates, and as a sanity test what would a graph of discovery rates from say 1930-2030 look like?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-24024109928657602242010-11-11T15:22:54.553-08:002010-11-11T15:22:54.553-08:00"Fields jet to be found.." Exploratory d..."Fields jet to be found.." Exploratory drilling goes after geophysical research data. Obviously if the data is unreliable the drilling result will be the same. Now success rate is about 25%. What happen if success rate reaches 75%? If it is so, Peak Oil will be removed to next century.<br />See http://binaryseismoem.weebly.comgeologhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16998412740741410556noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-60586822432211791652010-11-11T01:05:18.767-08:002010-11-11T01:05:18.767-08:00And regarding the IEA story and its reports over t...And regarding the IEA story and its reports over the years, a key piece of information below :<br /><br />http://www.countercurrents.org/badal250510.htmjdl75https://www.blogger.com/profile/15366583375524963151noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-25800619779230589582010-11-11T00:56:37.235-08:002010-11-11T00:56:37.235-08:00Talking about China is easy, however regarding the...Talking about China is easy, however regarding the CURRENT big picture, the important fact remains that the current US consumption is still higher than the ones of : China, Japan, Germany, Russia, and India, COMBINED !!<br /><br />Don't you guys feel like something could be done in your "country" ?<br />Oh yes I know tax is a bad word and you HATE politics (god is better). Time to help you learn to behave a bit maybe, no ? ...jdl75https://www.blogger.com/profile/15366583375524963151noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-46338416381553871032010-11-10T13:43:47.000-08:002010-11-10T13:43:47.000-08:00Stetson or Homburg?
Pork Pie, obviously. Tasty.
T...<i>Stetson or Homburg?</i><br />Pork Pie, obviously. Tasty.<br /><br />That's a very suspicious line for conventional oil on the first graph. Nice and straight out to 2035.Douglashttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13400304542602805292noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-22919473548439978132010-11-10T12:09:38.910-08:002010-11-10T12:09:38.910-08:00They still act as if there won't be any potent...They still act as if there won't be any potential shortages until 2015. I suppose that's progress, but the incremental production graph basically tells us that they are still deep in denial.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07317858463978974538noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-29796721777362467582010-11-10T11:17:56.919-08:002010-11-10T11:17:56.919-08:00KLR - I was assuming the 5mbd was on top of curren...KLR - I was assuming the 5mbd was on top of current production (8.01, 8.11, 8.11mbd are the last three months in the most recent IEA OMR).Stuart Stanifordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-67118237644627290982010-11-10T10:15:22.962-08:002010-11-10T10:15:22.962-08:00They're also forecasting 8.5 million PHEV/EV s...They're also forecasting 8.5 million PHEV/EV sales in 2035 China. BYD's PHEV has been a flop to date - sales in the hundreds. Better get cracking on that neuvo middle class, guys.KLRhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00691172491186270514noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-50027774083978174772010-11-10T10:13:12.585-08:002010-11-10T10:13:12.585-08:00I'll eat my hat if Saudia Arabia is producing ...<i>I'll eat my hat if Saudia Arabia is producing 13 million barrels/day in 2035.</i><br /><br />Stetson or Homburg? KSA topped out at 9.7 mb/d C+C in July '08, so this chart would put them closer to 15 mb/d, and that only oil. Of course surely you don't doubt they can maintain these levels forever, right?<br /><br />What are they forecasting for the 2020 Chinese auto fleet - ca. 125 million? It's about 1/2 the current US size on the chart. That's actually on the low side of projections I've come across - think ca. 200 million. That's going to guzzle down some mb/d.KLRhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00691172491186270514noreply@blogger.com