tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post3467598980583359174..comments2024-02-23T01:30:06.101-08:00Comments on Early Warning: Saudi Arabia to Produce 10mbd in July?Stuart Stanifordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-45551939180383578212011-06-14T09:16:10.532-07:002011-06-14T09:16:10.532-07:00Interesting take here:
http://www.zerohedge.com/a...Interesting take here:<br /><br />http://www.zerohedge.com/article/goldman-presents-three-scenarios-where-wti-brent-headed-and-why-firm-has-been-wrong-directioManolohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13630492236752920246noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-61675993987405857942011-06-13T13:01:54.876-07:002011-06-13T13:01:54.876-07:00I think the WTI / Brent spread is getting cleared ...I think the WTI / Brent spread is getting cleared by US refiners exporting gasoline and making some nice, fat margins. ;)buck smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10165817144159425547noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-87137057644525547712011-06-13T01:14:16.300-07:002011-06-13T01:14:16.300-07:00BTW, the spread WTI / Brent is getting ridiculous ...BTW, the spread WTI / Brent is getting ridiculous (almost US$ 20, but nobody seems able to take advantage and ship oil out of Cushing, despite a transport cost (I was told..) of less than US$12./barrel <br />Your thoughts ?Manolohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13630492236752920246noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-7497505092239190902011-06-12T07:28:08.078-07:002011-06-12T07:28:08.078-07:00Manolo: :-). We shall see...Manolo: :-). We shall see...Stuart Stanifordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-14673560604796274272011-06-12T03:22:11.491-07:002011-06-12T03:22:11.491-07:00Well, well, 10mbd on a sustained level for several...Well, well, 10mbd on a sustained level for several months or more ?<br />XXL LOL<br /><br />Sorry could not restrain myself... :-)<br /><br />Anyway, always a pleasure to read you,StuartManolohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13630492236752920246noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-8556624331111578982011-06-11T14:22:41.754-07:002011-06-11T14:22:41.754-07:00Frugal: That would be consistent with the idea th...Frugal: That would be consistent with the idea that they not only are they overstating their reserves and their spare capacity, but in fact are having to struggling to maintain production at present levels until they ramp up the rig count again.Stuart Stanifordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-86927464866111827252011-06-11T13:42:53.502-07:002011-06-11T13:42:53.502-07:00I believe you need to use psychology to undertand ...I believe you need to use psychology to undertand what the Saudi's are saying about their production or reserves. Using logic alone doesn't work.<br /><br />Fuzzy, inconsistent, and ever changing numbers are a strong indication that they're withholding critical information. I have personally heard the same type of language during relationships that weren't working out very well. On every one of these occasions, the other half of the partnership was later found to be withholding critical and damaging information.<br /><br />In my opinion, the more inconsistent the story, the greater the likelyhood of a lie being told. I'm not sure if any research papers on this topic exist.Frugalhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02131888563915032794noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-15232127805527883092011-06-11T09:28:43.831-07:002011-06-11T09:28:43.831-07:00Buck:
My guess here is that we are seeing an atte...Buck:<br /><br />My guess here is that we are seeing an attempt to intimidate the Iranian's, and that it's a complete bluff. I'm not certain, however.Stuart Stanifordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-39647827009297041372011-06-11T07:12:57.414-07:002011-06-11T07:12:57.414-07:00Historically Saudi behavior wrt production and oil...Historically Saudi behavior wrt production and oil prices have been explained by greed and fear. The greed is the desire to get the best price for their oil. The fear is that high prices will bring other supplies on to the market whether of oil or alternatives to oil. The politics of the Arab spring rebellions probably add several other motivations into the mix. The rebellions are triggered by high prices for food and the key driver in high prices for food is high prices for oil. There is also competition with Iran for leadership and control of the rebellions, influence with other governments in the region. Interesting times for the Saudis and all of us.buck smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10165817144159425547noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-11865419356402408432011-06-10T20:00:20.860-07:002011-06-10T20:00:20.860-07:00I was going to write something paranoid about majo...I was going to write something paranoid about major journalists being on the payroll of intelligence agencies closely allied with KSA ... but I am reading Michael Lewis' 'The Big Short' right now, and it is making abundantly clear to me yet again that one should not attribute to malice that which is just as easily explained by stupidity. Of course, it is also making clear that malice and stupidity thrive in each other's presence.Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16069860882299265079noreply@blogger.com