tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post2275896601440873663..comments2024-02-23T01:30:06.101-08:00Comments on Early Warning: IEA Sceptical of Iraq Oil IncreasesStuart Stanifordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-53837267240570054472010-11-04T13:37:34.907-07:002010-11-04T13:37:34.907-07:00It's difficult to reconcile this new claim by ...It's difficult to reconcile this new claim by the IEA (if such it be) with their 2008 prediction of a global supply shortfall in 2013-2014. That, I'd have thought, would tend to weaken or eliminate OPEC's quota system. So five or six million barrels per day by 2020-ish would seem more likely, even taking into account the fractious politics in and around Iraq. <br /><br />> a lot is uncertain.<br /><br />Yes. One thing seems very likely, though: China looks set to increase its influence in Iran and Iraq; all the more so if it delivers on its oilfield upgrades, while the IOCs don't. Slowly and surely Iran and Iraq are being drawn into the East Asian trading bloc.Greghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11939046017258198038noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-62040227805213864302010-11-04T07:10:09.898-07:002010-11-04T07:10:09.898-07:00A lot of big oil companies will lose a lot of mone...A lot of big oil companies will lose a lot of money - but only if they have been investing a lot of money. I for one have long been skeptical that they would invest the amounts of money they said they would as long as the political and security situation in Iraq is in great flux.<br /><br />Perhaps the IEA projections are based on assumptions that the big oil companies are not going to invest as much capital as they said they would. Perhaps the IEA even has inside information about that. Or perhaps I am completely wrong.<br /><br />But if I were an oil executive, I would be playing it safe - especially after reading stuff like this:<br />http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/oct/17/iran-secret-deal-political-power-iraqJameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16069860882299265079noreply@blogger.com