tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post2171514047383585705..comments2024-02-23T01:30:06.101-08:00Comments on Early Warning: How Long Do Mega-mega-projects Take?Stuart Stanifordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-64570035814319293392010-01-13T00:36:45.746-08:002010-01-13T00:36:45.746-08:00The numbers you quote above are for the execution ...The numbers you quote above are for the execution portion of the project only & are slightly misleading for an Iraqi context. In order to determine the true time it takes to complete a project of this size & complexity you need to add the time for project evaluation & FEED bidding and completion. <br /><br />For the Khurais project the FEED contract was awarded in mid 2005 and bidding probably started in late 2004 or early 2005. So the total length of the project with FEED added was 4.5 to 5 years. <br /><br />In addition to the above, there is always an assessment & evaluation phase to start a project of this size which would be done by internal Aramco resources and take 1-2 years to complete. With this added the true length of a project like this is actually 6 years or longer. <br /><br />For the Iraqi projects the IOCs will minimize the evaluation phase but the project lengths will still be in the range of at least 5 years to complete.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13775225470507499032noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-51886815436235128322010-01-06T10:49:29.988-08:002010-01-06T10:49:29.988-08:00Eric - completely agreed.Eric - completely agreed.Stuart Stanifordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-65403605737619271102010-01-06T10:48:29.119-08:002010-01-06T10:48:29.119-08:00Kjm - I'm still planning on doing that post, b...Kjm - I'm still planning on doing that post, but the more I looked into the Iraqi thing, the more it became clear that it was <b>the</b> central uncertainty and so I decided I had to understand it better first.Stuart Stanifordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-81752532732676808712010-01-06T08:59:58.764-08:002010-01-06T08:59:58.764-08:00It would help at this point to do that big picture...It would help at this point to do that big picture post you mentioned back in December. If I put things together correctly, we are expecting 1mbpd/yr of increase from the non-OECD world and stagnant demand from OECD for the near future. On the supply side, production is recovering at around 3-4mbpd. In three years, some additional supply starts coming from Iraq, with large increases after that, probably something like 1mbpd/yr.<br /><br />It's looking like giving Saddam the boot really might have kicked the can down the road a decade. Of course, that would also mean bullet dodged / "peak oil debunked" again for many more years.kjmclarkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00490417628052004621noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-34011545814922715862010-01-06T08:32:00.711-08:002010-01-06T08:32:00.711-08:00Everything about operating in Iraq is going to be ...Everything about operating in Iraq is going to be more difficult than operating in Saudi Arabia. From finding safe food and water for the workers to getting high speed links back to corporate HQ.<br /><br />Hypothetically, if you were a Silicon Valley tech firm and needed to get some IT security equipment to a new ops center for one of these sites, how much longer would it take to deploy to Iraq vs Saudi Arabia?Eric Hackerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03288021379443566141noreply@blogger.com